Another quick moving cold front will move through Utah this afternoon through this evening, bringing snow to the high elevations and rain changing to snow to the valleys. 4-8″ likely above 7,000 feet. A break in the action is likely for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Next storm system is approaching the area, as seen on this satellite image:
Snow will begin to develop in the mountains through the day today with snow becoming heavy this evening. Rain will fall in the valleys this evening and overnight, likely changing to snow.
Snow accumulations should be 4-8″ above 7,000 feet, 2-5″ between 5-7k feet, and trace-2″ on the valley floors. There is a possibility we see slightly more snow in places in the mountains. For example, the 12km NAM shows Alta receiving 9″ of snow by midday tomorrow:
Because this is a similar type of system to the two we saw last week that were both underwhelming, I think the best idea is forecast less and hope for the best. If I were you, I’d tell your boss today that you feel like you might be coming down with something. Wake up early tomorrow, check the snow reports, and make the decision if you’re too sick to go to work or not. ;-)
This might be our last shot at powder for awhile as a ridge is building along the West Coast, this will push most of the energy well north of us. There could be a few disturbances that drop down the continental divide over the next week that clip us with mostly clouds and slightly cooler temps, but precipitation looks unlikely for at least a week.
Models still hinting at retrogression of the ridge between March 18-21. This could potentially open the storm door again for the last part of March. CFSv2 forecasts show a return to above normal precip along the west coast by the end of the month. MJO is making its way through phase 8, which means phase 1 is next. Phases 1-4 are all good for us in Utah, and are all phases we haven’t seen MJO in this winter at all. Let’s hope it can get there….