Working our way into winter, slowly…

Tuesday, October 21, 2014 at 7:41 am

Summary:

Scattered showers today with a dusting of snow above 9,000 feet.  Warm and dry Wednesday thru Saturday before a trough brings cooler temps and a chance for more high elevation snow showers on Sunday.

Details:

A system is moving through the area today.  Scattered showers are likely across most of the region.  As for snow, a dusting is possible above 9,000 feet in the Wasatch by tonight.  The Uintas may do a bit better with a few inches possible there in the highest elevations.  Behind the front, temps will be cooler today than they have been.

On Wednesday we see high pressure return with temps warming through the end of the week.  Saturday may be a bit breezy, but should be the nicer of the two weekend days.  On Sunday, our next system moves into the region.  Major differences between the EC and the GFS regarding this system.  GFS keeps the systems consolidated and ejects it through the northern Rockies, giving Utah a similar dose as to what we are seeing today.  The EC splits the system and closes off the southern Low over Southern Utah.  This scenario would bring decent precipitation totals to Southern and Central Utah, but northern Utah would get caught in between the two pieces of energy and only see modest amounts.  Depending on which solution is right, snow levels on Sunday could range from 7-9k feet.  At this time, it does not look like a major weather system for most areas.

Long range:

Next week we will ridge up again at least for a few days. Models are all over the place as we close out October and head into November.  Right now I’m going to hold off on trying to make any sense of it until we get some model-to-model and run-to-run consistency.

The good news is that none of the models like the idea of persistent dry patterns right now.  All ensembles keep the general pattern progressive, so chances are we’ll get some storm systems into the area sooner rather than later.  CFSv2 long range model continues to paint above average precip for the Western United states for the month of November… We’ll see…

WSF