Complicated storm

Friday, February 27, 2015 at 7:30 pm

Saturday AM update:

Southern Utah sees the brunt of the storm Today.  Brian Head already reporting 5″ this morning.  Northern Utah could see occasional snow at times as well.  There could be a lull in Southern Utah on Saturday night and Sunday before things pick up again Sunday night into Monday.  It’s such a complicated forecast with so many aspects that can change, that it’s easiest to just say that the high elevations will have off and on snow all weekend.  The farther south you go, the higher accumulations should generally be.  By Monday, still thinking 10-16″ for southern mountains with 1-6″ for northern Utah…. There could be banding of showers with deformation zones setting up…  Again, I think your best bet is to keep a close watch on radar and webcams and be ready to travel to wherever is getting the most snow.

Monday night and Tuesday storm isn’t the strongest and is quick-moving.  It’s cold though and snow levels should drop to all valleys with perhaps a chance for lake effect behind the front.  At this time 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods seems reasonable with 4-8″ elsewhere… but I have a feeling this numbers will need to be tweaked up or down in the coming days.

Break in the action is well-advertised in all models starting Wednesday and lasting 5-7 days with warm temps returning.  Most models then slowly move a trough into the west coast between March 10 and 12 with active weather returning for the mid-month period…

Snowpack: 

So yesterday I mentioned we were in danger of having the driest February on record, on the heels of one of the driest January’s on record.  It’s not going to be pretty, but lets see what that did with our snowpack.  I’ll continue the theme of my last snowpack post and compare it to the three previous years, all of which ended drier-than-normal for most of Utah.

Snowbird is just about tied with last year and 2012, but is trailing 2013…. Unfortunately, both last year and 2012 had good ends of February and beginnings of March, so unless we get a lot of snow soon, we’ll be lagging behind each of the last three years.

snowbird_snotel

Thaynes Canyon at PCMR is now squarely behind each of the previous three years.

thaynes_snotel

Ben Lomond Peak which is the closest site for Snowbasin and Powder Mountain is probably faring the worst… Way behind last year and even trailing the dreadful 2013 season.

 

 

ben_lomond_snotel

Our one tiny ray of light this year is yet again Tony Grove Lake up near Logan.  It’s now below the median, sitting at 93%, but it’s still better than any of the three other locations above.  It’s now in second place and even if they don’t see another snowflake, it should be better than 2013.

tony_grove_snotel

 

Welp, there ya go… I’ll wait until the end of this storm cycle, then post these charts again to see if we got any change.  I’ll also post the latest westwide basin colored map with all the snowpack percentages throughout the Western US…

I’m down in beautiful Telluride this weekend.  Good timing as they should get hit pretty hard! If you’re down there, give me a holler!

WSF