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Cold Refresher

Saturday, December 3, 2016 at 7:39 am

Summary:

A cold storm, lacking somewhat in moisture will move in late Sunday night into Monday.  Very cold temps, but perhaps not a lot of snow, although we should see some accumulation.  A chance for another storm later in the week into next weekend.

Details:

A break today into tomorrow, but we should see plenty of clouds ahead of our upcoming system.  Cold front will push into the region late Sunday night into early Monday.  As I’ve mentioned the last couple days, this system lacks moisture, but does contain plenty of cold air.  Models, which were already dry, have backed off a touch over the last 24-hours.  Right now, I think the most likely scenario is 3-6″ on Monday with perhaps a touch more in a few lucky areas.  Here is the NAM this morning for the Upper Cottonwoods:

Univ of Utah

Univ of Utah

5 inches by midday Monday…. Not a huge storm by any means.  There is definitely a chance for more snow than forecasted, but right now I think setting your expectations low is wise.  Better to be surprised than disappointed.

The main story will be the cold air.  It will get cold on Monday, then really cold as reinforcing shots of arctic air filter into the region on Tuesday and Wednesday.  On Tuesday, we could see a second wave also fire up some more snow showers that could add a few more inches.  Conditions should be good for skiing/riding, but perhaps not deep powder like we saw this last week.

Late in the week, we’ll see another system work its way into the area on Friday and Saturday.  Large differences in model solutions still exist, but it should be a warmer system with perhaps more moisture to work with.

Long range:

Model ensembles are all over the place currently.  Some are showing a continuation of storms, while others have ridging giving us a break.  Not going to bother to speculate at this point.

Conditions should remain very good with frequent refreshers in the next 10 days.  Just remember to bundle up if you’re going up Monday-Wednesday of this week.

WSF





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