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Welcome to Splitsville – Population: You-tah

Thursday, October 30, 2014 at 7:25 am

Summary:

Warm today and Friday with winds picking up Friday evening. Storm system moves in on Saturday bringing high elevation snow showers Saturday afternoon thru the day Sunday.  Much cooler temps expected.

Details:

Watching this storm (like any storm when you’re desperate) has been a roller coaster of emotions.  Models were looking good a few days ago but I was skeptical.  Sure enough, they’ve been splitting the system more and more over the past couple days.  We’ll still get snow, mind you, just not the totals that may have been suggested a few days ago.  Personally, I’m setting my expectations low.  3-6″ with a chance for more in some areas.

This system has a significant southerly flow component to it on Saturday.  High Uintas could do alright in this pattern as well as Snowbasin and Powder Mountain at the very highest elevations.  Snow levels during this period of the storm will likely be above 8,000 feet.  By Saturday night, snow levels drop and we see the flow switch to northwesterly.  This is when most of the snow will fall for most resorts.  The big question right now is just how much moisture we get during this period.  Personally, I’m not optimistic, however there is a good chance for lake effect downwind which would obviously significantly boost totals if it were to occur.

Snow should dwindle by Sunday afternoon and clear out completely by Monday.  High pressure returns for next week! Temps should remain cold enough Monday – Wednesday for some nocturnal and early morning snow making!

Long range:

Still very little agreement in the long range.  I don’t see any significant storms through Nov 9 at least.  After that, anything can happen.  With an extended break likely after this weekend’s storm, we are leaving ourselves susceptible to rotting layers.  Maybe it would be best if we hope for no snow at all…