Category Archives: Uncategorized

2 feet of wind, 1 inch of snow…

Saturday, October 25, 2014 at 8:03 am

Summary:

Windy and warm on Saturday ahead of  a system that will clip Northern Utah tonight and Sunday.  A few showers and an inch or two of snow above 7,000 feet will by possible by Monday morning.  Mostly dry through Halloween.

Details:

Storm system is pushing into the west coast right now.  Here is a look at the 24-hour forecast:

24_hour

 

As you can see, precipitation is expected as far south as the Bay Area and Tahoe.  However, this system’s track is not conducive for Utah.  It is lifting northeast rather than tracking due east or southeast which would bring a good storm to the area.  Instead, we are going to be clipped with just a few showers tomorrow.  Unfortunate, as the models were showing this system’s track as much better a couple days ago.

Utah should just expect a lot of wind today and tonight, a few showers with the cold front tonight, and then a few more showers Sunday afternoon in the post-frontal airmass.  Snow levels will drop down to about 6,500 feet late on Sunday but accumulation of an inch or two should be confined to above 8k feet.

By Monday we ridge up again and dry out.  Another system will push north of the area on Wednesday, so we’ll see some breezes and clouds, but at this time all precip should stay north of Utah.  Ridging and dry, warm conditions continue through Halloween.

Long range:

The cut-off low mentioned in the last couple discussions is still forecasted by both the GFS and EC to develop off the California coast.  For the most part the models agree that it will move inland sometime between November 1 and November 3 and impact the area.  The extent of that impact remains to be seen as the strength and exact track of the Low is not known quite yet.

Long range ensemble means of both the GFS and EC show brief ridging developing behind the cut-off low for the tail end of the first week of November.  Then, as we start the second week of November, a large trough develops of the western states.  This looks promising now, but it’s so far out in the models that it’s not much more than speculation.

It’s frustrating right now that we just can’t seem to get a system to track over us in a way to bring appreciable snowfall.  On the bright side, no ski areas are scheduled to open for another 25+ days, so there is plenty of time to get a good storm cycle in before the start of the season.

WSF