Deep Days of April

Thursday, April 6, 2017 at 6:14 am

Summary:

A warm day today, a windy day on Friday, then cold and snowy this weekend as a spring storm system drops into the region and brings mountain snowfall Saturday and Sunday.  Another storm possible late next week.

Details:

Not much change in the forecast.  Today will be warm and spring-like.  Friday will see increasing clouds and winds out of the south or southwest.  Snow will develop Friday night in the far north along a semi-stalled boundary.  Then slowly sag south during the day Saturday.  Would expect periods of mountain snowfall on Saturday with snow levels falling below 6,000 feet.  By Saturday night, a cold, moist NW flow will develop.  This will bring orographically enhanced snow fall to the mountains of Utah, especially areas favored in this type of flow.

This is a very typical Utah winter storm, but it seems like we’ve had very few of these type of storms this year.  The type that feature a strong cold front, then a long period of cold unsettled northwest flow where you simply let orographics do their thing.  This season, instead, will be remembered as the season of the SW flow, where Brighton and Deer Valley saw tremendous snowfall, and Utah in general saw higher snow densities.  Anyway….

There is still a lot of spread in the ensembles, which means my confidence in exact amounts is low:

Univ of Utah

1-3″ of liquid could mean anywhere from 1 to 3 feet of snowfall for the Upper Cottonwoods.  So at the very least, it appears to be a decent storm.  If the northwest flow really delivers Saturday night into Sunday, then it could be a very good storm.  The 12km NAM is just now coming into range and shows upwards of 2 feet of snowfall, most of which would be Saturday night into Sunday:

U of U

So, all things considered.  I think this weekend will be a cold and snowy one, especially up high.  Still thinking that late in the day Saturday could be good, especially for northern Utah.  Sunday, however, is looking like the best bet for deep powder.

Long Range:

Models coming into better agreement.  We will have a break generally from Monday until Wednesday.  We could see a weak system on Wednesday but nothing appreciable.  Then, a deep trough will dig into the region late in the week and we could have another chance for decent snowfall heading into next weekend as well.  Winter appears to want to keep a strangle hold on the area.  Most long range models show a continuation of storminess into the second half of April.

WSF





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