Spring Roller Coaster Continues

Wednesday, March 29, 2017 at 7:10 am

Summary:

Bluebird conditions continue today into early Thursday before the next storm pushes in Thursday afternoon.  Snow likely thru Thursday night into Friday morning. Friday should have fresh snow.  Quiet and mostly sunny this weekend before another storm likely for early next week.

Details:

We are currently in a break in the action. Warm and sunny today before the next storm pushes in tomorrow.  Snow showers should begin in the highest elevations by afternoon on Thursday.  Snow levels will initially be high but should lower Thursday night as colder air filters into the area.  The latest model trends have been less deep with this trough, which means that perhaps the best precip won’t dive south of the area after all.  This is good news for northern Utah.  Still, there is a lot of uncertainty in the models and the ensembles right now.  NAEFS showing anywhere from 0.6″ of liquid to >2″ of liquid with this storm:

Univ of Utah

That makes it hard to make a forecast.  Right now I think the most likely scenario is 5-10″ in the mountains of Utah by late Friday.  I think some locations will see more than that but at this point it’s hard to pinpoint where that will be.  Thursday evening, I’d say check webcams and radar returns and make a plan for how to attack the pow on Friday.  Here’s the latest NAM-WRF map showing snowfall in the mountains throughout the entire state:

We will clear out by Saturday and have nice weekend with warming temps again. The next storm will then push in later on Monday into Monday night of next week.  This system currently does not look overly strong, but should put down another refresher of snow in the mountains and could be cold enough for snow showers in the valleys as well.

Long Range:

Active pattern looks to continue through the first week of April. Models currently showing the possibility of yet another storm for late next week.  Too early for any details.  We should be powder skiing well into April at this rate.

WSF





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