Storm system is pushing in now with showers likely on Wednesday, with thunderstorms possible. More widespread precip likely tonight into Thursday with colder air and lower snow levels. Thursday should offer storm day powder. Active pattern continues this weekend into next week with additional storms likely.
Spotty showers have already begun overnight and should continue throughout the day today. A strong shower and/or thunderstorm must have passed over the Cottonwoods overnight. Alta-Collins station reported 0.69″ of liquid overnight, 0.45″ of which fell between 12am and 1am. I was asleep at that time so not quite sure the extend of it, but that is some very, very heavy precipitation. During this time the temperature was in the mid-30s at mid-mountain, which means it was probably rain at the base and snow at the top. Cottonwood resorts are reporting 3-4″ of new snow overnight. Today’s showers will be rain below about 8,500 feet and snow up top. It’s likely going to be a very sloppy day on the ski slopes.
The core of this storm pushes in tonight and continues thru Thursday. Colder air will work its way into the region with the snow levels gradually falling below 7,000 feet. Most mountains should see decent accumulations tonight thru tomorrow. Thursday should be a good day for skiing, although the snow density will be relatively high.
Here is a look at the total accumulation likely through Friday:
The pink areas are the locations that could see accumulations of up to a foot. The blue areas are the lower elevations that could see a few inches toward the tail end of this system once snow levels drop. Overall, I still think 6-12″ for the high elevations (above 8,000 feet) is likely with 4-8″ for the lower elevations. Due to the banding and convective nature of this system, it’s possible that some areas could see higher or lower amounts, depending on just where the heaviest bands/storms setup.
We will clear out by Friday with a short break into early Saturday. Next storm pushes in late Saturday into Saturday night. This is a fast moving system that doesn’t look overly strong. Still, I think we could potentially see enough snowfall to soften up turns for Sunday morning.
Another follow-up system is pushing into Monday into Tuesday. The GFS wants to take this system farther south, primarily impacting southern Utah. Whereas the EC pushes it through the whole state as another quick hitting storm system. We will have to watch this to see how models trend.
A generally active and moist pattern keeps the threat for mountain snow going through the end of March. There is a chance this active pattern could continue right into April. But this time of year I don’t put much stock in long range models. On a side note, there was just a rumble of thunder outside my house — could be some lightning holds today on lifts today — I’d hold off until tomorrow when the colder air arrives.
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