How much juice can we squeeze out?

Friday, February 17, 2017 at 6:34 am

Summary:

A strong system is punishing Southern California today with heavy rains and high winds.  The moisture from this system will eject northeast later today and bring chances for rain and snow to Utah. Additional moisture on Sunday could bring some accumulations to them mountains as well. Perhaps a colder, stronger storm for middle of next week.

Details:

A lot going on in the West right now, unfortunately Utah is not currently favored for any of the good stuff.  We had an initial weak wave move through yesterday evening.  We saw a few mountain snow showers, but not too much reached the ground.  Beaver Mountain reporting 3″ of new snow, but everybody else saw less than an inch.

The big story today is the heavy rains and winds blasting southern California as a low pressure system drops south.  The spin of this low will eject moisture into southern Utah later this morning, and northern Utah by later this afternoon.  This moisture isn’t overly impressive by the time it reaches us, but we should see valley rain showers and mountain snow showers this afternoon into this evening.  We could see 2-6″ of accumulation in the high mountains by tomorrow morning.

A break for most of Saturday into Saturday night, then additional moisture streams in on Sunday into Sunday evening.  This is disorganized moisture, but with an already moist airmass, we should be able to squeeze out some mountain snowfall.  Right now it looks like perhaps another 3-6″ of snow for the mountains.

Our first system will have dropped south and then east of the area by President’s Day, which means we should see a break Monday and Tuesday.  On Wednesday, a new system looks to drop into the Great Basin.  This one isn’t as strong, but it should be more of a direct hit for us so we’ll see better chances for more significant accumulations.  It will also be much colder with snow levels dropping to valley floors.  Wednesday and especially Thursday of next week should offer a chance for decent accumulations in the Wasatch.  Something to keep an eye on.

Long Range:

Ridge is going to build up into Alaska and off the west coast.  That means that Utah will be on the east side of the ridge.  We could see some weak, cold systems drop down the backside before the end of the month.  Potential exists for the undercutting of the ridge at some point as well.  As I mentioned yesterday, this pattern can often lead to additional atmospheric rivers down the road.

WSF





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  • Jamie Elgie

    So one of the snow websites is forecasting 18″ at the base on Wednesday for PC. Feel like that has a chance of being real? Would be nice to see a return to snowy days!