A Short Break

Monday, February 13, 2017 at 7:53 am

Summary:

Quiet weather to continue for the next several days.  Change in the pattern will bring more active weather back into the region in time for the weekend.

Details:

Not much to talk about over the next few days as mostly sunny and generally warm conditions will prevail.  Let’s fast forward to Friday when the pattern starts to change and we start to see chances for snow again…

First storm will be weak and push through late Thursday night into Friday.  All signs point to this storm only bringing a few light snow showers.  The next storm will be splitting, with the main low dropping down into SoCal and Arizona.  This will bring thread of snow to the mountains of southern Utah on Saturday with moisture streaming north into Northern Utah.   Doesn’t look overly significant again.

Then, as we head toward Sunday, we could see more of a direct hit from moisture pushing east off the pacific and a stronger, colder storm.  Another system could follow up for Monday or Tuesday.   Models are not in good agreement regarding these systems.

It’s much easier to generalize for now and say it looks like things will start weak and slowly get stronger for the period around and just after President’s Day (Feb 20).  If you look at the NAEFS ensembles, you can see the reason for my ambiguity:

Univ of Utah

Not much agreement with total QPF ranging from 0.5″ to 2.5″ thru Sunday afternoon.  This doesn’t even include any subsequent storms.  We’ll just have to wait a day or two and assume the models will iron out some of the details.

The good news is that these systems look to have more cold air with them than last week’s storms.  That means we likely won’t have as bad of snow level headaches.  While it may take a few days for this pattern to get the engines revving, eventually we should see some decent snowfall.  Today’s 06z GFS shows some decent numbers by the middle of next week:

Notice California continuing to see the brunt of the storms…

Long Range:

We remain active through the middle of next week (Feb 22 or so), then long range models begin to diverge.  Some show the continuation of the trough (storms), while others have a ridge building just off the west coast which could shut down the storms.  This time of year, we are starting to head toward spring and long range models become even more unreliable.

WSF





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  • Eric Blair

    I’m not sure you have to talk to, but if you vould bring the cold back, I sure would appreciate it.