Wild Week of Weather

Monday, February 6, 2017 at 6:47 am

Summary:

An active pattern will bring snowfall to the highest elevations of northern Utah over the next few days.  This high elevation snow will be accompanied by winds and valley rain.  Another storm will affect the region Friday into Saturday.

Details: 

As I said yesterday, this isn’t your typical storm and perhaps may not be the best storm for skiing purposes.  Not to say you can’t have a lot of fun, but it will be windy and the snow will be very dense over the next few days.  Pay close attention to radar, webcams, snow reports to time the best days for recreation.

There have been a few changes in the model timings of the heaviest precip.  Models have backed off on precip today (Monday), so we should only see occasional showers.  Resorts are reporting anywhere from 0-3″ this morning.  They could get another 1-3″ thru the day today.  The tempo really picks up tonight with periods of heavy snowfall in the mountains tonight thru Tuesday.  Snow levels will rise up to 7,000 feet or maybe even higher during this period.  That means any snow that does fall will be wet and dense.  Perhaps periods of graupel.  Winds will also be strong and wind holds on susceptible lifts are likely.  Elevation, as long as you can stay out of the wind, is your best bet for this storm.

Snow showers will likely continue into Wednesday as additional waves of moisture push in.  Overall, models have been forecasting 1.5 – 3.0″ of liquid from this storm.  That would mean 1-2 FEET of new snow above 7,500 feet, with perhaps up to 30″ for the highest elevations.  Keep in mind that these totals are thru Wednesday night, so it’s a long duration event and we likely won’t see overly high totals in any given period.

A bit of a break on Thursday before the next storm pushes in on Friday.  This storm will start out very warm with snow levels high again.  Then a cold front will push through Friday night and drop snow levels, possibly down to valley floors.   Models still haven’t dialed in just how strong this system is, but my inclination is that we’ll again be looking at some healthy totals heading into the weekend.

Long Range:

Still looks like high pressure takes control for drier, quieter weather from about February 12 to February 17 or so.  After that, models depict the storm door to open again.  Can’t provide much detail other than that.  We’ll continue to keep an eye on that…

WSF





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  • HypnoQuail

    What day do you think it will be better to take off of work? Tues or Wed?

    Thanks!!!

    • Tom Bennett

      HQ: I don’t think you can lose with either one. Gut says Tuesday will be much higher risk for LCC closure, wind delays, but the rewards might be higher for true fresh. Wednesday could be best if upper mountain areas don’t open Tuesday (likely).

      But deciding between the two is a champagne problem.

    • If you can get to the high elevations and wind isn’t too bad (and canyons aren’t closed), then I’d vote for Tuesday. Free refills likely!

      • But that’s a big “IF”…. I’ll be up there trying to make it happen.

      • Tom Bennett

        I read his question slightly different…if you had to take one day off and not the other, you’d probably want a reduced risk of getting skunked. I think if you’re playing it safe, Wednesday.

        Tuesday is my window, but I have no choice as I fly out for a business trip at 2PM. Evan, I’ll look for you West Cirque or Gad 2 depending on conditions.

  • DeezNuts

    Live in LA, coming to visit you March 1-5 for dad’s 60th (2 years in a row!). Been reading your blog religiiously every day for 2 years now. Really really hoping for some storms to roll through while we’re there! Thanks for all of your hard work, I’ve donated already and really appreciate your commitment!