Picking up the Tempo

Friday, February 3, 2017 at 6:46 am

Summary:

Another storm pushes into the region late today with snow in the mountains tonight into early Saturday.  A break Sunday before an active period with periods of mountain snowfall Monday thru Wednesday.  Plenty of chances to ski powder!

Details:

Yesterday’s very weak impulse had little in the way of dynamics, but there was enough moisture for some snowfall and the mountains of northern Utah picked up anywhere from 1-5″ of new snow.  Might not sound like much, but it was more than expected.

Another storm moves in later today with snowfall picking up in the mountains this evening.  Snow continues overnight into Saturday morning.  This is a relatively warm system so snow levels will be above most valley floors, probably around 6,000 feet.  Total accumulations in the mountains by Saturday afternoon likely to be in the 4-8″ range, with higher amounts possible in favored areas like the Cottonwoods.

We’ll see a break in the action on Sunday.  Then, the next system moves in for Monday into Monday night.  This system has good moisture with it and we should see another healthy dose of mountain snowfall.  Probably mostly rain in the valleys.  Another wave of moisture will push into the region late Tuesday night into Wednesday.  This second wave of moisture is difficult to call as some model runs have shown it as quite an impressive round of precip, while others have the ridge building in quickly and weakening or pushing this moisture to our north.  Either way, we should see active weather between Monday and Wednesday of next week.  Just how much rain/snow we get will be dependent on just how much moisture makes it into our region.

Above is the total precip as per the 06z GFS thru Thursday.  Healthy totals for the north, minimal precip for southern Utah.

Long Range:

Ridge builds in for late next week.  Both the EC and GFS now have a system dropping into the region out of the northwest on February 11 (next Saturday).  This could bring us some snowfall. Not sold on this just yet as the ridge might push this north of us, but hopefully models continue with this idea.  After that, February 12-17, models agree on ridging taking control for mid-month.  Long range models still favoring a return to active weather for the end of the month.  Not sure we can put much faith in that at this point.  Pacific still looks like it could be primed for additional AR events before winter is over.

WSF

 





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