Weak, Weak, Strong?

Tuesday, January 17, 2017 at 8:11 am

Summary:

A couple more days of quiet weather, then an active pattern redevelops for the western U.S.   First storm in the series pushes in on Thursday.  This storm looks relatively weak.  Another storm will focus south of the region on Saturday, with a third and final storm for Monday of next week.  This last storm could be stronger.

Details:

Another day today with valley haze and bluebird conditions in the mountains.  Clouds increase on Wednesday ahead of our next system.  This storm is another atmospheric river, but this time it is aimed up in Washington and British Columbia.  By the time it sags south and east, it will weaken considerably.  This is a common fate for storms that have the duty of breaking down a ridge.  By the time we see snowfall on Thursday, it will be significantly weaker.  Snow should start on Thursday and continue at times into Thursday night.  Right now I think 3-6″ is likely wither perhaps higher amounts in a few favored locations.

A bit of a break on Friday, then the next storm pushes in on Saturday.  This storm is sliding south and may favor Arizona and far southern Utah.  Northern Utah will again see lighter accumulations from this storm.

The final storm in the series is timing for Monday and could be a bit stronger and hopefully will not slide south.  This probably means our best powder skiing will be Monday and Tuesday of next week.

Here is a look at the Univ of Utah’s output of NAEFS ensembles:

You can see the weak storm on Thursday, a slightly stronger but still weak storm on Saturday, then hopefully a stronger storm for Monday.

Long Range:

It does look like the storm for early next week will be the last in this series.  A ridge builds over the west coast to shut off the valve.  Should be noted that the Euro does have one more weak system later next week and the GFS hints at the possibility of weak storms dropping down the backside of the ridge.  So we could still have chances for snow, although it does look like a break from anything significant to end January.

WSF





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  • Floyd Teter

    Hoping for more good storms in February. As I write this, pitchers and catchers report in 27 days…winter seems to wane from that point on. And I’m nowhere near ready for winter to start fading.