2017 Forecaster Headaches

Sunday, January 1, 2017 at 8:11 am

Summary:

A cold front will push in tonight into Monday morning and bring a period of snow to Northern and Central Utah.  Accumulations should remain modest.  After Tuesday, models have struggled with details, but active weather looks to continue for the foreseeable future.

Details:

What a headache! This isn’t a headache borne from NYE celebrations, but rather from trying to follow what is going on in the guidance.  Models don’t agree.  Subsequent runs of the same model don’t agree.  And ensembles within the same model run don’t agree.  It’s as chaotic as I can ever remember.

What we do know is that a front will push in later tonight into Monday morning.  That will bring a period of snow to Northern Utah.  This front will weaken and drop in Central Utah tomorrow where it is expected to stall.  There’s nothing special about this feature, and it’s limited in dynamics and moisture.  But it will drop mountain temperatures for tomorrow and bring some snow.  Accumulations look to be in the 3-6″ range with 5-10″ for the Cottonwoods.

On Tuesday, we should see a break in the action, after which, the chaos really begins.  I could try to describe everything I’ve been seeing over the past 24-36 hours, but it would just confuse you as much as it’s confused me.  There’s really no point as I still have no idea in any details.  But we should have chances for snow in the mountains in an active pattern.  Impossible to determine timing of these waves of snow and where snow levels will be.  Hate to say it, but for details, you’ll have to check back later.

Long Range:

It seems like active weather should continue late next weekend into the following week.  Of course, any details at this point are impossible to determine.

WSF





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