WTF!

Saturday, December 31, 2016 at 7:03 am

Summary:

Huge model changes from 24 hours ago.  The upcoming week isn’t looking nearly as frigidly cold, with better chances for snow extending through the week.

Details:

What a massive change in the models since yesterday!  We’ll still have our storm Sunday night into early Monday, but beyond that, there’s very little agreement in models.  So let’s start with the known….

After quiet weather today, we’ll see clouds increase on New Year’s Day with a cold front pushing into the region Sunday night into early Monday.  This cold front will bring a period of snowfall, but may move through rather quickly.  Right now, it looks like 5-10″ of snowfall looks likely for the mountains by later Monday.  Monday could be a modest powder day.

For the past several days, the forecast was looking for a very cold trough to settle over the region with potentially frigid temperatures.  Now, models are keeping that cold air north, then east of the area and instead bringing in a second piece of energy Wednesday into early Thursday.  That means we could see a second burst of snowfall, especially in Central Utah.  There are some major differences still in the models regarding whether or not this even happens.  00z suite of models from the NAEFS for QPF:

Univ of Utah

You can see that in general, it was the Canadian ensembles that are more optimistic about this second piece of energy.  Normally I don’t pay much attention to the Canadian, but the GFS seems to be trending that way and the Canadian has the support of the Euro.  So… It’s definitely a possibility that we see some decent midweek snowfall.  Conversely, there are some ensembles that show little or no additional snowfall on that graph above.  There is so little confidence right now beyond Tuesday — but it looks not as cold with a better chance for snow.  I think this is good news!

Long Range:

The 00z Euro went rogue yesterday and shows and extremely active pattern continuing late this week into the upcoming weekend — bringing impressive totals over the next 10 days.  The GFS is not on board with this solution, but does bring a system into the region late next weekend.  Quite simply… This is about the most influx I’ve seen models in a long time.  That means confidence in details is extremely low.  But, it seems more than likely that active weather will continue for the next 10 days — which is good.  Check back tomorrow and hopefully I’ll have a better handle on details.

WSF





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  • Kendall Wimmer

    Got to love a forecast that starts with “WTF!” I had the same reaction, had to check my app to see if I was logged into the right city and state. What a difference a day makes. Fingers crossed.

  • robwbright

    Good Lord, I’m happy to see this. My buddies and I are skiing Tuesday to Saturday. We were not looking forward to skiing in 0 degree weather all day for 5 days.