Christmas Eve Storm

Tuesday, December 20, 2016 at 5:26 am

Summary:

A very weak system will brush the region tonight with a dusting of snow possible.  A stronger storm is possible for the weekend.   White Christmas, anybody?

Details:

As mentioned the last couple days, tonight we will have a very weak cold front push through the region.  It’s weak to begin with, and getting weaker as it moves south.  I think we’ll see an increase in clouds, and perhaps a few light snow showers.  Hard to see anything more than a dusting in accumulation for all elevations.

Relatively quiet weather leading up to the weekend, then a storm drops into the interior west Saturday and Sunday.  We should see valley rain and mountain snow showers beginning on Saturday.  These should change to snow for most elevations by Saturday night.  Still a fair bit of disagreement between the Euro, GFS, and Canadian models.  The main concern with this system is that it will be dropping too far south.  It may favor southern Utah more than Northern Utah.  Initially, a southerly flow will dominate the region which would favor the far Northern Wasatch and Uintas.  Eventually, this could transition to a northwesterly flow Saturday night which could favor the Cottonwoods.

I definitely have my concerns about this system, but at this time it looks to be at least a moderate snowfall producer for the weekend.  Current NAEFS guidance for the Upper Cottonwoods:

Univ of Utah

1-2″ of liquid would be a healthy amount, even if it’s overdone a touch.

Right now, we are in ‘wait and see’ mode, but it does appear likely that we’ll be getting some powder for the Christmas weekend.  And there’s definitely a chance that many of us will be waking up to fresh snow on Christmas morning…

Rejoice!

Long Range:

Almost no agreement beyond Christmas Day.  GFS wants to bring us a series of decent storms.  The Euro keeps them weak and generally to our north.  Nothing we can do at this point but hope that the GFS is on to something.

WSF

 

 





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