On Track

Friday, December 9, 2016 at 6:32 am

Friday evening update:

As expected, this afternoon we’ve entered a lull in precipitation with just spotty showers.  This will continue into tonight and even perhaps tomorrow morning.  Like I mentioned this morning, don’t panic, the storm is not a dud.  We got .4-.9″ of liquid already, which is pretty decent and the skiing today was great in the Cottonwoods!  The main meat of this storm pushes in for the latter half of the day Saturday into Saturday night.  Snow levels will drop along with snow densities.  Sunday is the day for powder, but Saturday could get better and better as the day wears on.  Winds could be high on Saturday with very wet snow falling later in the day.  GoreTex!

WSF

 

Summary:

Our long duration storm is here with periods of mountain snowfall likely to continue thru much of the weekend.  Strongest portion of the storm arrives late Saturday into Saturday night.  Significant accumulations likely.

Details:

First part of the storm is ongoing with periods of snow yesterday afternoon and overnight.  Accumulations so far have ranged from 3-7″, but it is snowing pretty hard in many locations right now so wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bit more by the time resorts open today.  Snow levels rose as valleys mixed out overnight.  Right now snow levels are ranging from 6-7k feet, but there are still pockets of cold air in valleys that are keeping some snow levels lower than that in certain locations.

Off and on high elevation snowfall will continue today into tonight.  But this is the rather disorganized part of the storm so I don’t expect large accumulations.  We could see an extended break in the action later today into tonight.  If it stops snowing later today and tonight, don’t panic.

It’s certainly looking like the strongest portion of this storm will affect us later in the day Saturday thru Sunday.  The lion’s share of our accumulations will come then.  We’ll also see temperatures cool again with snow levels dropping again, perhaps down to some valleys.

The forecasted accumulations still look good. 10-20″ for the lower elevations, especially on the Wasatch Back and in areas not favored in a westerly flow.  20-30″ for the Cottonwoods and Northern Wasatch (including high elevations of Snowbasin and PowMow).  Remember, these totals are 3-day accumulations from yesterday thru Sunday morning.  This is a long duration event and snow may not be excessively deep at any one time.  I urge you to be patient with this type of storm.

Right now, it’s definitely looking like the best ski day will be Sunday. But great turns could be had both today and Saturday as well.  Winds will be strong so there could be a chance for wind holds.

Long range:

We’ll start to clear up later on Sunday with a break on Monday and perhaps Tuesday.  Models still advertise active weather continuing but there is so much disagreement from model to model and run to run that its not even worth speculating at this point.  But, more snow certainly looks likely next week.

WSF





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  • Chad Niel

    I’m perfectly happy for the long range to continue to give us “chances of active pattern continuing.”

  • Floyd Teter

    Data point in support of your analysis of the pattern. Where I live in South Jordan, we haven’t seen a lick of snow from this storm. Dry as a bone but for some spotty rain showers. But driving up the east bench this morning, the higher elevations were still getting pretty good snowfall.

  • Things are looking good! ⛷

  • Fresh 5+” today at Brighton! Was really good!

  • bcbuse

    Sounds like Sunday is the day! Appreciate the evening updates you’ve been doing, thanks.