All About That Base (2016)

Sunday, November 27, 2016 at 6:50 am


Snow overnight has already blanketed Utah mountains.  Additional snow showers today will add to these accumulations with snow levels dropping down to almost all valley floors.  Heaviest snow arrives on Monday into Monday night with significant accumulations likely.


As of 5:30am this morning, resorts are already reporting a fairly healthy dose of snow from our first weak wave.  Snowbird reporting 5″, Alta-Collins sensor shows 6″ of fresh, and even PCMR reporting 4″ up top.  Seems plausible.  You can see the snow really picking up overnight at Deer Valley in this timelapse:


Snow showers will continue, mainly in the mountains this morning.  A second wave will push in this afternoon and increase the coverage and intensity of snow again as we head into this evening.

The big storm will bring more widespread and heavy snow to the region tomorrow (Monday) with significant accumulations likely.  We’ll start to see things tapering off by Tuesday morning.  Overall, 3-day accumulations, including what we’ve already seen should be 10-20″ for the high elevations with 2 feet or more possible for favored areas like the Cottonwoods.  We could even see some areas pushing 3 feet if we are lucky, but I wouldn’t count on that.  Today should be decent for powder. Monday should get better and better and Tuesday morning should be money.  If only we had a bit more terrain open….

Long range:

Another storm will drop down into the region later in the work week, but looks to be weak.  It’s brings us almost nothing in the Euro, and just light accumulations in the GFS.  Overall, the pattern looks to remain mostly cool with chances for snow from time to time.  Right now, models have not zeroed in on any one specific storm for us to track.


P.S.  Last night I issued my first ever “Powder Alert” in a partnership with Ski Utah.  These email alerts are designed to let you know when the best of the best is coming.  Truly the Greatest Snow on Earth.  These alerts will only be issued when I feel with have a very good chance for significant powder.  I use the 80/8 rule…  80% confidence that we’ll receive at least 8″ of snow for a specific region in the state of Utah.  This should be particularly helpful if you’re willing to travel to new resorts around the state in the chase for powder.  You can sign up for this by signing up for the “12” or more” group of the Ski Utah newsletter at .  You can opt out of any other emails so you only get these powder alerts.

Also, when these Powder Alerts are issue, the Ski Utah sign will light up Red at night at their office on the corner of Parleys and Foothill in SLC.  Normally the sign is white, but it will be Red for upcoming strong storms and green after a resort officially reports a Monster dump (12″ or more).  Pretty cool!


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