Overdelivery

Tuesday, November 22, 2016 at 8:07 am

Summary:

Snow yesterday for the high elevations has coated the mountains again.  Significant accumulations were seen in the Cottonwoods.  Another storm late Wednesday into Thursday, and further storm this weekend into next week.

Details:

Very hard to get an accurate reading this morning.  Many resorts are not reporting.  Snowbird reported 15″ in the last 24 hours and 17″ storm total.  Not sure if this is accurate, Alta-Collins stake seems to have stopped recording around 9-10″ last night.  Other resorts seemed to fall in the forecasted 5-10″ range on the upper mountain.   If you have any specific reports from the elevations above 8,000 feet, it would be appreciated.

The storm came together very nicely for us.  Plenty of moisture was fed into the region via the southwest flow yesterday morning and early afternoon.  Then the flow turned northwesterly and was primed with moisture which allowed for very productive orographic lift for areas like the Cottonwoods.  You can see this flow turn from southwesterly to northwesterly in this radar loop from yesterday:

1122_radar_loop

While snow levels did fall eventually yesterday evening, the temps were still relatively warm.  That led to snow confined to elevations above 7,000 feet.  You can see the snow line well in this morning’s image overlooking Jordanelle Reservoir from Deer Valley:

1122_sultan

Overall, I’d say this storm did as good or better than expected for most areas.  Can’t be disappointed with it.

More good news, as I’ve mentioned in the last few forecasts, the hits keep coming.  Our next storm is Wednesday afternoon thru Thursday morning .  This storm is quick moving, cold, and lacking a bit in moisture, but should be able to drop 4-8″ for the high elevations, a few inches possible for mountain valleys, and maybe a dusting to an inch or two in the valleys as snow levels will drop down to all elevations.  The wildcard for this system will be lake enhanced or lake effect showers SE of the GSL.  If we can get the lake effect machine to turn on a bit, the Cottonwoods could see higher totals.

A break from late Thursday thru Saturday before another system on Saturday night into Sunday.  This looks relatively weak at this time, but will bring some colder air and a few snow showers and be a precursor to a stronger storm for Monday into Tuesday.  Still a bit too early to look at this one in details but it has potential to bring widespread snowfall to the region.

Long range:

Overall, it seems that the chance for storms should continue through the first week of December.  Ridging will build to our west, but it should be far enough off shore that storms dive down from the Gulf of AK or British Columbia into our region.  So there should be plenty of cold air as well.  You can see the overall pattern well in the following loop… In general, blue colors mean colder air and chances for storms.  This loop runs from today thru the first week of December:

1122_heights_loop

WSF





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  • Chad Niel

    Snowbird actually dialed back their report for the storm 5 inches. After reporting 17 in 48 and a 27 ytd it’s 12 in 48 and 22 ytd. I have never seen them jump the gun like that before. Weird.

    Still that should be enough to open this weekend!

  • Billy Spencer

    Any recommendations for snow dances?

  • Aaron Libby

    Any thoughts about the week after? Are we likely to see this continue throughout December?

  • Thanks for all you do! Your forecasting is awesome. Snowbird’s dialed back report of 12″ in 24 hours was consistent with what I saw between 9-10K’ at Alta today. It was high quality dry, but somewhat dense powder.

    • Chad Niel

      Sounds like good base to me 👍🏼

  • I’m in Kauai and just read this, Snowbird is notorious for false/over reporting. The Collins gauge is always the most reliable source, if for some reason it is down then I look at the Snowbird snotel site.