Sunday update

Sunday, November 20, 2016 at 5:57 am

No big changes from yesterday’s forecast.  Still a degree of uncertainty regarding the storm tonight into Monday.  This is the type of storm where we’ll likely just have to wait and see where the best precipitation bands setup.  I think Southern Utah in general is favored but I still think 0.5-1″ of liquid is possible for the high Wasatch.  In general, I think 5-10″ for the highest elevations is a good bet.  Due to the warm nature of this storm, snow levels will initially be high (above 8,000 feet) before lowering to 7000 feet or below on Monday.  Base elevations will likely remain below 5″ of accumulation.  Certainly not a major storm, but every little bit helps.

Major model differences have arisen with the latest run of the Euro.  The GFS has trended deeper and stronger with subsequent storm systems later this week into the weekend and early next week.  The Euro, however, has trended farther north with the storm track and gives us mostly weak, brush-by systems.  Right now, the more consistent model has been the GFS.  But the EC is the gold-standard in mid-range forecasting, so there is definitely some concern that it could be on to something.  I will definitely be keeping a keen watch on subsequent runs of both models to see how this plays out.

Full update tomorrow…


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