Coldest Morning Yet

Friday, November 18, 2016 at 8:00 am

Summary:

Cold this morning, but we will warm up this weekend with quiet weather. Next storm is Monday with additional snow chances through the end of the month.

Details:

By far our coldest morning of the season thus far.  It’s 19F at my house on the bench and even colder in the mountains:

1118_temps

Some single digits in the high elevations and even some temperatures below zero.  Peter Sinks, a notoriously cold basin in the Northern Wasatch was -12F when I checked earlier this morning. Needless to say, it’s cold enough to make snow at area resorts.  A quick sweep of webcams this morning shows snow being made virtually everywhere.  Deer Valley taking full advantage:

1118_blowsnow

Yesterday’s storm dropped anywhere from 2-8″ in the mountains of the northern Utah.  Certainly not a big storm, but we didn’t expect it to be.  The one big surprise was how well the storm performed for Southern Utah.  Brian Head reporting 15″ of new snow from the storm!

Weather will warm up this weekend.  By tomorrow, snow making will probably have to be confined to the overnight and morning hours as temperatures will moderate quite a bit.

Next storm pushes in Sunday night into Monday.  This system is splitting with much of the strongest energy heading south, however, model runs lately have been more favorable for bringing precipitation to Northern Utah.  Snow levels this time will likely be above the valleys. Current QPF projects for this system:

1118_qpf_plumes

There are a few ensembles that are pulling the mean way up.  It shows about an inch.  Chances are this is overdone, but it does illustrate that there are a range of possibilities with this system. Right now, I think setting expectations low is wise.

Then, a break late Tuesday into Wednesday before another system for Thanksgiving day.  This system looks weak at this point, but should bring a chance for snow showers to the mountains.

So, overall, nothing overly strong in the next week.  But with a couple systems, we certainly have the possibility that one of these storms could over-deliver.

Long range:

The storm door remains open thru the end of November.  GFS has been consistent in bringing stronger storms into the area for the last few days of the month and into early December.  The Euro deterministic has struggled to get on board with this idea and keeps the storms weaker.  I’m optimistic, but would really like to see the GFS and ECMWF models agree on the solution for bigger storms.

WSF





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