Storm Rolls in Later Today

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 at 7:11 am

Summary:

A quick-moving storm will bring a round of snow to the region this evening thru tonight and into tomorrow morning.  This is not a major storm by any means, but it will dramatically cool temperatures. Snow is likely at all elevations.

Details:

Windy conditions today ahead of the cold front that will push the region late this evening.  Temperatures will drop dramatically and snow will be likely at all elevations.  Here is a look at what the HRRR model projects this front to look like this evening:

1116_hrr

You can see that rain (green) changes to snow at all elevations in this loop.  I would expect an hour or two of moderate to heavy snow for the valleys with several hours for the mountains.  By morning total accumulations should be 4-8″ for the high elevations.  There is a chance that some favored areas such as the Cottonwoods get more.

Overall, this is definitely not a big storm by Wasatch standards.  However, it will at least get us started on a permanent base and will deliver colder temperatures that will allow resorts to make snow between now and Thanksgiving.

Our next storm will be splitting off the west coast.  Some model ensembles show us getting no precipitation at all, while others show us getting moderate amounts.  We’ll likely need a few days for models to dial in on one scenario.  Either way, it doesn’t look to be anything other than another small storm.

Long range:

We are in an active pattern, but unfortunately the storms are dropping down the west coast and splitting.  It looks like the pattern will gradually become more progressive after Thanksgiving thru the end of November.  The hope is that this will mean storms will be able to maintain their strength better as they move into Utah.  We are too far out for any real details, but will continue to watch models to see if we can get some bigger storms into the region before the end of November.

WSF





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  • Taylor Cutler

    Do you think little cottonwood will see some lake effect kick in with that northwest flow?

  • Jeremy Olson

    Thank you so much for the update and all you do with the Wasatch Snow Forecast.

  • Seth Richardson

    What are your thoughts on the temps? I don’t think this is going to provide much of a base when we are going right back up to higher temps this weekend, into rain next week. Higher elevations might hold some snow, but I suspect the bottoms will still be bare going into December.