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Sunday, November 13, 2016 at 8:49 am

Summary:

A few more days of “boring” weather before a storm moves into the area Wednesday night into Thursday morning for our first snowfall in quite awhile.  Not a major storm, but enough to paint the mountains white.

Details:

Yesterday, models jumped off a cliff with regard to forecasted precip amounts with the upcoming storm.  It made a lot of us want to follow the models right off of that cliff.  Luckily, models have trended back in the direction of a more amplified solution that would bring better dynamics farther south into Utah.  The latest GFS shows the following snowfall amounts:

1113_gfs

Not a major storm, but the areas in purple and pink could see 6-10″ of snow.  We could also see the threat for lake effect snow southeast of the GSL, although lake-effect is always difficult to forecast.

In addition to the modest snowfall, our temperatures will finally drop down to normal or even slightly below normal values.  This will allow resorts to make snow in earnest, perhaps around the clock.  I still think it will be a stretch to get anything open for the week leading up to Thanksgiving, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility for us to have a few runs open for the Thanksgiving day and weekend.

Right now, individual ensembles are still showing a wide range of outcomes.  This forecast is certainly not set in stone and we could see models trend drier again.

Long range:

Looks like we’ll have a break next weekend into early next week.  Long range forecasts continue to show a persistent trough off the west coast.  That would likely mean systems dropping down the coast.  Utah may be a bit too far east to get the best precipitation in this pattern and I would like to see the trough shift east with a less amplified pattern.  It’s certainly far better than the pattern we’ve seen the last few weeks however, so I’m hopeful that storms will be able to impact the area thru the end of November.

WSF





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  • AndrewJackson

    This is why I don’t like early season trips. The Wasatch can change things around in a few weeks, but I would be sweating if I had planned any Christmas skiing. You never know though. I remember when I had planned a late December trip and the base was 25-30 inches a week before I arrived. Luckily, there was a 51” storm just before I got there!