The Skunk?

Saturday, November 12, 2016 at 8:08 am

Summary:

Mild conditions to continue for a few more days.  A chance for a storm on Thursday, although it’s not looking to be anything to strong at this point.

Details:

Yesterday’s post was titled “Baby Steps” and focused on a modest storm next week.  Well, that modest storm is getting more modest by the day.  Both the GFS and Euro models have trended weaker and farther north with the storm in their respective operational runs.  It’s discouraging news considering how desperate we are becoming for snowfall.  At least we are not alone, with most of the country lacking early season fluff.

Still, there isn’t reason to give up all hope, the NAEFS ensemble members present a wide range of possibilities for the Upper Cottonwoods, from no snow at all to close to 20″.  The mean is generally in the 6″ range.

weather.utah.edu

weather.utah.edu

For right now, all we can do is cross our fingers and hope the trend is stronger rather than weaker.  I would not get your hopes up too much for this storm.

Long range:

Trough still expected to develop along or just off the west coast. Utah is on the eastern periphery of the trough heading into the Thanksgiving holiday.  In the past, we’ve seen this pattern in which storms drop down to our west, then either split or weaken as they get ejected inland.  It’s not a great pattern for us.  The good news is that at least we’ll have a chance for storms, which is in stark contrast to what we have been seeing lately.

WSF





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  • Db

    what are the chances we fall below 2011 level by Christmas?

  • DaNNsN

    Is this a sign of what the season is going to be like or is it to early to tell?

  • Steve Noufer

    Not perfect.

  • Tom Bennett

    Second-best season of the decade started with just 18″ in November. Let’s all relax. Utah is never really pumping until after MLK day anyway.