Warm, dry conditions will continue for the next week with valley haze continuing. We finally have a pattern change to talk about with a storm likely next week and the possibility for continued storms thereafter.
Not much change in the short-term forecast. We remain in a very stable pattern. Inversions have developed which is leading to valley haze. This quiet weather will continue through the weekend and into early next week.
Finally, it is looking likely that we will see a major pattern change next week that will allow storms to reach the area. Monday’s post was ‘Glimmers of Hope’, and it appears those glimmers are getting brighter by the day. GFS and ECMWF (Euro) models in general agreement on the timing of the first storm to be late Wednesday into Thursday of next week (November 17). We’ve seen a major shift in all models toward a solution that would bring troughing back to the west coast. The hope is that this would lead to additional storms for Thanksgiving week. My one main concern is that the trough could setup with its axis along the coast to our west, placing us on the eastern side. This would be more favorable for California and the west coast and perhaps less favorable for us.
We finally have a long-range outlook that features good news. That means colder air and a chance for storms. I’m not going to concern myself too much with the details at this point. We’ll continue to watch and update as we get closer.