Glimmers of Hope

Monday, November 7, 2016 at 9:39 am

Summary:

Dry and warm weather expected to continue for the majority of the next 10 days.  A chance for a change to a more favorable pattern for the last few days leading up to Thanksgiving.

Details:

High pressure is in control, as it has been for most of the past few weeks.  Our snowpack right now is virtually non-existent and we are entering uncharted territory.  I’ve made no secret the the outlook has been grim for ski resorts to be able to open on their scheduled opening dates.  No natural snow, and not enough cold air for us to consistently make snow.

 

The pattern this Election Day:

1107_tues

The “warm” colors indicate higher atmospheric pressure than normal.  Which generally translates to ridging, which generally means warm and dry.  You can see that the vast majority of North America is warmer and drier than normal.

This pattern begins to shift next weekend with the continental high pressure breaking down a bit.  This could allow a very weak storm to move in Sunday or Monday of next week.  Probably just clouds and perhaps a few degrees of cooling.  After which, high pressure rebuilds.  This time this high pressure will be centered along the West coast. This is the outlook for November 15th:

1107_1115

This is another dry pattern for us as the troughing is confined to areas East of the Continental Divide.

Things start to change in the week leading up to Thanksgiving.  European, GFS, and Canadian ensembles all agree that the ridge will amplify, weaken, and then retrograde west out into Pacific.  This will allow for storms to potentially enter the west coast.  You can see this overall trend towards troughiness with this ensemble mean forecast for November 20th:

1107_1120

At this point, this is far too early to pinpoint any potential storms.  All I can say right now is that it does appear the pattern will become more favorable for storms.  Whether or not we actually get any is another story.  At least we have something to watch…

WSF

 

 





This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Steve Noufer

    I’m curious as to historical comparisons to winter taking this long to get going?

    • Good question, Steve. I plan to address this in the next day or two.

      • Mike

        In reading a quick article about the upcoming super moon have you ever seen a correlation between the current weather pattern and a super moon?

        Thanks