Sigh

Wednesday, November 2, 2016 at 7:52 am

Summary:

Nothing in sight still, unfortunately. Dry and warmer than average conditions should dominate for at least the next 10 days.

Details:

Tuesday’s weak storm did just as expected, brought some snow showers and colder air.  Perhaps the coldest morning of the year so far and it’s only just about average climatologically speaking.  Now we enter a long stretch of dry and warmer than average weather as high pressure takes control.  The system for late Sunday into Monday that the GFS has been portraying recently is now forecasted to get completely sheared apart before reaching us. The total forecasted precipitation over the next 10 days is depressing:

WeatherBell

WeatherBell

Long range:

Sometime around mid-month, there will be a switch in the pattern and high pressure that has been over the central United States will weaken and will be replaced by a high pressure ridge along the west coast.  This is another dry type of pattern for us, so it could be that we transition from one dry pattern to another.  Our only real hope is that perhaps the high pressure sets up far enough west that it will allow backdoor systems to drop down from the north.  The Pacific Ocean, which was looking active in the early Fall, is now totally anemic.

I’m usually pretty good at finding things to be optimistic about, however right now I’m honestly struggling to find anything.  I think it’s going to be difficult, if not impossible, to get many of the resorts open on time unless there is a major change from what the models are currently portraying.   If you’re searching for good news, all I can tell you is that 1) It’s still very early in the season and we have months to make up for our slow start.  2) You get more time to enjoy more non-snow related recreation in the mountains.  and 3) Things can change very fast, so nothing in this forecast is set in stone.

I’ll update again only when I see something worth talking about.

WSF





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  • Florida Sam

    Hey WSF

    I know you focus more on the near forecast for power days, but do you have any plan for a winter forecast to provide some guidance on the overall season?

    I just saw a story on weather.com about a particularly harsh Siberian start to winter and how that should impact us. Also some of those 3 month outlooks from the climate prediction center haven’t looked all that wonderful.

    So far it’s a slow start and that doesn’t necessarily have a correlation on the season, but there are other things I’m curious how they impact the expectations: PNW blob, La Ninya, Siberian Winter, etc.

    Thanks!
    Sam

  • JB

    I’m curious about this as well. I had never heard about how Siberia influences North America before weather.com posted on their site. I’ve also seen posts about how the blob isn’t gone like originally suspected. Seems as though it might be starting to influence our patterns here.