A Chance

Wednesday, October 26, 2016 at 8:39 am

Summary:

Sub-tropical moisture will bring additional rain to the region late Friday.  We have a chance for a colder system late Sunday into Monday that could bring accumulating snow to the mountains of Northern Utah.

Warm, quick-hitting storm Friday evening…  A low pressure system is parked off the California coast and will eject a wave of energy into the region.  This storm has tropical origins, in fact, it is feeding off decaying energy from a tropical system (Seymour).  That means there will be plenty of moisture, but the system lacks in cold air or dynamics.  I would expect this to be similar to what we saw on Monday morning earlier this week.  Showers Friday afternoon and evening with high snow levels.  Not going to do anything for us in terms of building a base.

A quick break on Saturday and early Sunday… Should be a warm weekend with windy conditions developing on Sunday morning ahead of the next system.

Colder storm for Sunday night into Monday… Looks like we’ll finally get a more progressive system into the region.  This means that the system’s temps won’t moderate too much and we could get a legit cold front thru to drop snow levels down below 7000 feet.  Models right now are all over the place with regard to how strong the system will be when it moves through.  You can see the ensembles of the NAEFS are all over the place, depicting anywhere from .5″ – 4″ of QPF over the next 6 days.

weather.utah.edu

weather.utah.edu

That means that this storm could be a minor player in a worst case scenario, but in a best case scenario, could drop somewhat decent snowfall on the high Wasatch.  We’ll have to keep watching models to see how this evolves.  The most recent major model run, the 06z GFS, was encouraging.

An early look at November… Right now, it looks like the first week or so of November will feature a strong continental high with continued troughiness in the northeastern Pacific.  That means that the PNW should remain active, but these storms will struggle to progress inland.  Weakening and splitting as they do so.  On one hand, this is frustrating.  On the other hand, at least we have continued chances for storms and an easterly shift in the pattern could mean we get in on the action.  General model guidance suggests a slightly warmer and drier November than normal.  The arctic right now is unusually warm for this time of year and arctic sea ice is re-freezing at a record slow pace.  Not sure what this will mean for us.

WSF

 





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  • Matthew Moher

    We’re doomed just like our elections.