Case of the Mondays

Monday, October 24, 2016 at 7:45 am

Tuesday Update:

After yesterday’s showers, we should have a break in the weather until Friday when the next system moves in.  This system will pull in decent moisture, but is quickly being ejected north and east and will not be a direct hit.  Expect just showers on Friday into Friday night with high snow levels.

Right now, our best hope for actual snowfall is late Sunday into Monday.  Another system will pass through the area, this one has a bit more cold air so we should see lower snow levels.  At this point, the system doesn’t look overly impressive, but it’s something to watch.  WSF

Previous:

Summary:

Rain showers likely today and tonight with snow levels up at or above 10,000 feet.  Additional moisture possible later this week, with high snow levels again.

Details:

A system in the eastern Pacific is pulling moisture up into Utah today into tonight.  Widespread showers likely.  Unfortunately, there isn’t any cold air to work with, so snow levels will remain very high.  Only the tops of the higher resorts should see any snow.

A break mid-week before more another system moves into the region Friday night into Saturday.  Right now, this system looks to mostly pass to our west then north.  We should still see some showers, but again, the snow levels will be high.  The overall pattern over the next week to ten days looks like this:

1024_heights

You can see, if you look closely, that I drew some red arrows.  This indicates the general storm track.  Essentially, storms drop down into that trough off the pacific.  This is a highly amplified pattern.  These storms then close-off for a bit off the SoCal coast where they moderate, losing their cold air.  Eventually, they get ejected east and north but weaken considerably as they encounter high pressure.  We are left with weakened systems that lack in cold air.  Not a pattern conducive to Wasatch snowfall.

For the next week, this pattern is going to continually reload itself.  With one system replacing another after it gets ejected out of the trough.  The hope is that by early next week, the pattern becomes a bit more zonal (less amplified), which would allow systems to maintain their strength and cold air and progress better east into Utah.  As of right now, this is just a hope.  Last night’s Euro keeps the current pattern in place through the end of the month into November.  This morning’s 06z GFS is the most optimistic model run we’ve had in several days, bringing in better storms at the end of the month and first week of November.  Not sure I buy this scenario yet as the GFS tends to be a bit more fickle.

So…  A bit of frustration for those of us who are ready to start building a base.  The good news is that it’s still October.  Lots that can happen over the coming weeks before the lifts are scheduled to start spinning.

WSF





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