The Waiting Game

Thursday, October 20, 2016 at 7:30 am

Summary:

Dry and warming for the weekend.  No snow in the immediate future.  Our first chance for some flakes will likely be later next week, but at this point, any energy looks weak.

Details:

It’s October 20th.  This is usually the date that I earmark for when I start to feel comfortable about us building a base.  I say, “Let it snow and let it snow often”.  Unfortunately, the snow gods aren’t listening right now.  Not much in the forecast, at least not yet.

Last weekend the atmospheric river pounded the west coast.  Portions of Northern California received record October rainfall, and the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades got significant snow.  The Tetons to our north also are having one of their snowiest Octobers on record.  Unfortunately, for the most part, we’ve missed out on all the action.  Just feeding on a few scraps.  I think it’s safe to say we’ve had enough “teaser” snowfalls by now and are ready for the real deal.  However, for now, we’ll have to wait.

Warmer and dryer as high pressure continues to build for this weekend.  Nice fall weather to do some hiking, biking, leaf raking, etc.  Next week a trough will dig off the west coast again.  Last week, this looked much more promising as models had this trough farther east, in a location that could bring us storms.  But now, the trough’s location off the coast means that it will likely spin out there and bring us little in the way of precipitation.  You can see this low well in the mean heights map:

1020_heights

Eventually, by late next week, we could see some weakened energy finally progress inland and bring us a shot at some snowfall.  Right now it looks fairly weak.  This trough then gets replaced by another trough off the coast toward the end of the month.  At this point, I don’t see any concrete signs of significant snowfall for Utah.  However, it should be noted that this time of year things can change very quickly and long-range forecasts are particularly capricious.  We’ve still got 3-5 weeks before most resorts open, which is plenty of time to get some storms into the region.

WSF





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  • Steve Noufer

    Definitely the time I start getting interested. Thanks again for your posts.

  • Faceplant

    I’m more of a 75 deg through Halloween then snow like a MF till May kinda guy anyway.

  • Tom Bennett

    Take heart, all. Last big year in LC was 2008 (634 inches), and it had one of the lowest Novembers (18 inches) in the 70+ years they’ve been tracking it.

    • Alta_Is_Rad

      What about 2010-2011 that was a big one but late too I think.

      • Tom Bennett

        10-11 was 54″, about average. Biggest November was 115″.