On the Edge

Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 10:09 am

Sunday AM:

Not too much change from yesterday’s forecast.  Rain is already falling in areas north of SLC.  Right now it looks like snow levels are at about 8,500 feet up by the Idaho border as of 8am.  Snow levels are above 9,000 feet around Ogden and probably 9,500 feet in the Cottonwoods.  Snow levels are generally going to stay high today.  The next wave will push in late tonight into tomorrow morning and snow levels should fall a bit down below 8,000 feet in the Cottonwoods/PC and perhaps lower than 7,000 feet up north.  By Monday evening, the highest elevations could have several inches of snow.

Another wave timing for Tuesday afternoon/night.  This wave is fairly weak, and will again favor areas north of SLC.  It does have more cold air with snow levels likely below 7,000 feet.  Could see a couple additional inches of snow.  WSF



A second, stronger wave of the storm will push into far northern Utah Sunday into Monday.  High mountain snowfall is likely.  Another wave is possible late Tuesday into Wednesday before we dry out and warm up later in the week.


The Pacific northwest is getting pounded once again today with the next in their series of storms.  High winds and heavy rain up there.  Eventually this is going to sag south and push east into the region…sorta.   Models have struggled with just how far south the stream of moisture makes it.  Looks like Logan and other areas north of roughly Ogden are going to get hit fairly hard.  Latest GFS shows the vast majority of precipitation falling up there:


For the central Wasatch, including PC and the Cottonwoods, they’ll be more on the fringe of the action.  The heaviest precip should start Sunday up north and slowly sag south as we head into Sunday night and Monday.  Snow levels will be tricky.  Probably above 8k feet up north on Sunday, lowering to 7k feet Sunday night.  In the Cottonwoods/PC, they could be as high as 9-10k feet to start, then lower down below 8k feet on Monday.

How much we will receive, especially south of that Ogden line, will be very dependent on how far the precipitation band sags.  Right now, the NAEFS ensembles show the following for the Upper Cottonwoods in terms of total liquid:



Over 1.5″, not too shabby.  As for how much of that will be snowfall:


Mean is over 10″ on Monday with almost all ensembles showing at least 6″.  I can’t help but feel like this is overdone.

It’s a very tough forecast because if things track farther north than anticipated, that would mean less precipitation and higher snow levels.  We could get almost nothing.  At the same time, if things track a bit farther south, we could get much higher precip totals and lower snow levels and could have fairly significant snowfall.  We’ll have to continue to watch subsequent model runs.

Long range:

Strong ridging builds into the region late next week into the weekend with much quieter and warmer weather.  Indications right now show that the next chance for storm action would be the last few days of the month.


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