Still waiting for models to come into better agreement. Friday night we should see a brief period of rain and high mountain snowfall. Doesn’t look like it will be anything significant. Big questions surround how the trough next week evolves. How far south will strong energy reach? How much cold air can we get into the region? When will the best period for snow be? All questions that remain as models struggle to find a common solution. I am going to wait another 24 hours before getting into any attempt at detals, for now, just know that more active weather is coming…WSF
Not too much going on over the next few days. Toward the end of the week, the action picks up in the Pacific and we will get some of the leftovers.
Currently, a weak disturbance is passing to our north. It’s been creating gusty winds at my house overnight. We have been facing a barrage of acorns all night courtesy of the oak trees that surround my house. These winds should calm down later today. This disturbance is also going to pull up a bit of moisture from the south. That will allow for a chance of a few afternoon or evening storms late today and tomorrow across the region.
Quiet weather for Wednesday thru early Friday while a large trough digs off the PNW coast. During the day Friday, an atmospheric river (AR) will set up and push copious moisture into the west coast. By Friday night, some of the moisture will reach Utah and we could see a period of showers and high elevations snowfall, although accumulations look light. You can see this AR quite clearly when we look at Precipitable Water values:
Very clear river of moisture streaming into Central California.
While this first wave on Friday night will be weak for us. There is potential for a bit stronger system to pass through the area sometime in the Monday-Wednesday timeframe of next week. This system could bring measurable accumulations to the Wasatch. Overall, as of right now, we see the following forecasted precipitation according to the GFS model across the west over the next 9 days:
The highest amounts are predictably to our west and north, but we do get in on some of the scraps. This kind of pattern is not uncommon for this time of year, and honestly I’m encouraged by how active the Pacific is so far this season. We are seeing a lot of progression in patterns and not a lot of the stubborn ridging that’s plagued us in recent years. Hopefully that bodes well for the rest of the winter.
If I look beyond the middle of next week. Indications are that ridging will take over for the latter portion of next week (Oct 20-25), but that storms could return for the end of the month.
P.S. Ogden Valley Winterfest is coming up on October 21-22 at Nordic Valley. This is your one stop shop to ignite your winter stoke. For only $15, you get two day access to food, music, rail jam, ski swap, and most importantly… SIX movie premieres. List of movies playing at Winterfest:
Teton Gravity Research Tight Loose
Match Stick Productions: Ruin and Rose
Good Company: Vice Versa
Tanner Hall: Ring The Alarm
Inspired Media Concepts: BE Inspired
Level 1: Pleasure
Proceeds this year will go to help local ski and snowboard coach Dustin Linker who was recently diagnosed with stage 3 cancer. Tickets can be purchased in advance by clicking HERE. I’ll see you there!