Something to Watch

Thursday, October 6, 2016 at 8:42 am

Friday update:

Latest model trends have backed off a bit on the idea of Utah getting in on the action late next week.  We remain on the fringes, with the best energy staying to our north and west.  High pressure to our south is the main culprit, shunting any energy away from us.  We’ll have to continue to keep an eye on things, but for now, it looks unlikely anything significant will make its way into the area over the next 10 days.  WSF

Previous:

Summary:

Warming and drying conditions as we head into the weekend.  Slight chance for a few showers and thunderstorms early next week.  Perhaps a chance for a stronger system late next week?

Details:

No change in the immediate forecast with temperatures warming this weekend and dry conditions.  Early next week, we’ll have a bit of moisture pulled into the area from the south.  That could mean a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  Snow levels will be above most peaks.

The last couple days I’ve mentioned that a large trough would be forming off the Pacific Northwest coast and swinging in several storms.  The big change from yesterday is with regard to how far south and east these storms are able to push.  Yesterday’s 06z run of the GFS showed the following for total precipitation thru October 15:

1006_yesterday

You can see that almost all the precipitation stays up in Oregon and Washington.  Now, contrast that with today’s run thru the same date:

1004_today_qpf

You can see that it has the heaviest precipitation much farther south in the Sierra Nevada.  That then translates to much more precipitation for Northern Utah.   We would still be on the southern periphery of the storm, which could mean high snow levels… but still, it’s a big change from yesterday.

The Euro was farther south yesterday than the GFS, but is currently not nearly as strong for us.  For what it’s worth, the Canadian still keeps all storm activity well to our north and west.  It’s still too early to know if this is an outlier model run or the GFS is on to a trend.  We’ll have to watch subsequent runs to see.  Stay tuned…

WSF

P.S.   Ogden Valley Winterfest is coming up on October 21-22 at Nordic Valley.  This is your one stop shop to ignite your winter stoke.  For only $15, you get two day access to food, music, rail jam, ski swap, and most importantly… SIX movie premieres.  List of movies playing at Winterfest:

  • Teton Gravity Research Tight Loose
  • Match Stick Productions: Ruin and Rose
  • Good Company: Vice Versa
  • Tanner Hall: Ring The Alarm
  • Inspired Media Concepts: BE Inspired
  • Level 1: Pleasure
  • DPS Cinematic

Proceeds this year will go to help local ski and snowboard coach Dustin Linker who was recently diagnosed with stage 3 cancer.  Tickets can be purchased in advance by clicking HERE.   I’ll see you there!





This entry was posted in Uncategorized on by .
  • Alex

    This could be a good thing, do you think the snow will melt from the north facing slopes?