Another early season trough will cool us off again and send a couple of disturbances through the region over the next few days. High elevation snow is likely with decent accumulations (for early October) possible.
We are now into October. I love this month. It starts out with generally warm temperatures and beautiful colors, and by the end of the month, we’ll have one foot in the door (one ski in the pow?) of winter. Yesterday, I was able to ride the Wasatch Crest for perhaps the last time this season (we’ll see…), and it was absolutely stunning scenery:
This glorious weather will be replaced tonight with a trough that will be traversing the northern Great Basin over the next 48 hours. This will carry with it a strong cold front tomorrow that will bring rain to the valleys and snowfall above 7,000 feet. Expect snow to begin late tonight or early tomorrow morning in the high elevations and continuing at times thru Monday night. This first system should drop 3-6″ in the high elevations — perhaps more in the highest elevations.
Temperatures will drop dramatically and eventually we could see snow as low as 6,000 feet, although accumulations this low are unlikely. Tuesday will be a bit of a break before another following disturbance drops into the region on Wednesday. Additional high elevation snowfall accumulations are likely with perhaps an additional 3-6″. Total accumulations according to the GFS thru Thursday morning:
And a graphical form of the North American model ensembles shows the following spread and mean QPF:
You can see the two distinct disturbances on Monday and again on Wednesday. You can also see that the green lines (GFS ensembles) are much more optimistic than the gold lines (Canadian ensembles). The Canadian is more in line with the Euro now, not sure which one I trust.
Of course, this snow doesn’t really do us much good aside from look pretty. It will probably melt off for the most part as high pressure should take control by next weekend and into the following week. I’m of the mind that major accumulations should hold off until about the 20th of October, after which I’m all for it snowing hard and often. As of right now, there are indications that we could get more active after mid-month, but obviously that’s a long way off and far from certain.