Active Start to October

Thursday, September 29, 2016 at 7:18 am

Saturday Update:

Looks like scattered showers will be possible in the high country this weekend.  Then, our low pressure system will track south, then east on Monday and push through the area.  A cold front will swing through and bring some rain to the valleys and snow to the mountains.  Snow levels will fall rapidly down to 7k feet or lower.  Nothing too strong, but a few inches up high cannot be ruled out.  Snow showers could continue on Tuesday and Wednesday.  More details tomorrow… WSF



Rain showers today (Thursday) are possible as moisture increases across the region.  Warmer temps and chances for showers continue this weekend.  Things change early next week as another cold trough passes through the region, bringing high elevation snow showers to Utah.


Showers today (Thursday) are certainly possible, perhaps even likely in the mountains.  Snow levels will be extremely high, probably above 11,000 feet.  A bit of a break tomorrow and perhaps Saturday, then showers increase again later in the weekend as a trough approaches.

A system is going to drop down the Pacific coast and bring precipitation to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada.  Then it will push east across the Great Basin, bringing colder temps to Utah on Monday and Tuesday.  The cool temps will be accompanied by snow showers in the mountains as well.  Right now, the Euro is more bullish with this system than the GFS.  Overall, it doesn’t look overly strong at this time, but we could see a few inches of accumulation once again in the highest elevations.  We’ll have to watch.

I may not be able to update until later in the weekend.


P.S.  I wrote a guest blog for Ski Utah.  In it, I wanted to see if an active October eventually leads to a deeper end-of-season snowpack.  This is not a seasonal forecast, and right now it’s far too early to know if our October will be “active” or quiet.  Just a fun way for me to satisfy my curiosity.  You can read it by clicking HERE.

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  • hongziyang

    Ah, October 2004. I remember it well.

  • Torrey

    What was the adjusted R-squared in your regression? I ran this for the Brighton snotel and found a significant correlation, but a meager adjusted r-squared at .13. This means that approximately 13% in the variation in April median snow water equivalent can be explained by snow depth at the end of October.

  • Db

    Lets all take the 2016-2017 Wasatch snow pledge:

    -I promise to not rage-post when the storms don’t line up as I believe they should
    -I promise not to lash out at others who are happy that theres enough snow to go downhill on.
    -I promise not to blame Evan Thayer if the storms don’t produce the posted totals he put up the day before.
    -I promise not to act arrogant about living close to the slopes and getting more blessed ski days a year than most others
    -I promise not to debate which wasatch resort is better than the other. (Snowbirds the best, everybody knows)

    Did I miss any?