Only 3 more days of summer remain as, meteorologically speaking, September 1 is the first day of Autumn. I have been quiet on the forecast front as there’s not much to talk about. Monsoonal moisture surges have generally stayed to our south this summer. When we have gotten some moisture, any storms generated were isolated and short-lived. Last year at this time, we were watching the emergence of one of the strongest El Ninos on record. However, this year, ENSO is fairly neutral with only a slight lean toward the colder phased La Nina. Utah snowfall does not correlate strongly with ENSO signals anyway, so a neutral or weak signal means that there’s basically nothing that can be gleaned for my forecasting benefit. Rather than overwhelm you with speculation, I’ve remained silent and will continue to do so until something of more concrete interest comes along.
While we’ve had some cooler temperatures lately, August will remind us that it is still a summer month and we should head into September with high temps in the 90s for valley locations. A cool front will pull up moisture later this week and we should have a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms — and we’ll cool back down to the lower 80s for the weekend.
You may have seen images of dustings of snow falling over the past week in Montana, Wyoming, and Colorado. Pretty typical for this time of year and a reminder that we are perfectly capable of seeing our first high elevation snow over the coming weeks. I’ve been watching model runs lately waiting to see if we can latch on to the idea of a cool system dropping down into the region. At times the models have hinted at it, but as of yet, they haven’t latched on to that idea quite yet. What I am seeing is a strengthening jet that is gradually sagging farther south. Impulses are frequently being ejected into BC. From what I can see, it’s only a matter of time before we get a first real taste Fall weather.
Personally, I’m looking forward to getting some moisture onto the mountain bike trails. I’m tired of moondust. Next update will (hopefully) be when something of interest pops up.