Snow showers push back in later today (Friday) into tonight with 3-6+ inches. Saturday morning turns should be soft. Late Monday thru Wednesday, a large trough will settle over the area bringing periods of snow. Additional powder skiing next week looks likely.
A weak wave pushed thru last night. Biggest impacts were up at Beaver where they are reporting two inches of new snow. Other areas reported a trace to an inch overnight. Here is the live look at Snowbird looking down LCC this morning:
A beautiful view. You can see the lingering moisture. If you timelapse this scence over the past 24 hours, you can see occasional scattered showers mixed with intermittent sun yesterday:
Expect these snow showers to increase throughout the day today as our next system pushes in. Snow showers should continue into tonight before tapering off early Saturday morning. Not a major storm, but 3-6″ looks likely above 7,000 feet in the Wasatch with 5-10″ possible for the Cottonwoods. This morning’s run of the NAM was particularly optimistic, showing over 10″ for the upper Cottonwoods:
Not sure I buy this 100% as most other models are closer to half a foot. I’d set you expectations at 6″ for the Cottonwoods, and be happy with anything additional that falls on top of that.
Late Saturday thru early Monday will be a break period. Late Monday, a large trough settles over the region. This system is closing off a bit from the flow, so it will be a slow-moving, meandering system. Right now, models agree it will pick up quite a bit of moisture and we could see off and on snow continue from Monday evening through the day Wednesday if current model projections are correct. That means Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, like this past week, could be very very good. Here is a look at the NAEFS ensemble chart:
You can see that ensembles have come into much better agreement about this system from when I posted this same chart a couple days ago. Generally, a mean of around 2″ of liquid for the highest elevations. If this were to verify, we could easily be looking at 1-2 feet for the high Wasatch from Monday thru Wednesday. Still too early to get excited, but definitely something to watch.
If you’re wondering how the recent storms have affected the snowpack, the answer is that they are “holding serve”. We are getting just about as much snow as we should be getting this time of year, which means we aren’t really falling farther behind, nor are we gaining ground. That should change over the next 5 days as these storms continue to bring snow. Here is the current snowpack graph for snowbird, compared to the previous 4 years:
This year (dark blue line) we are doing noticeably better than each of the previous four years. Much much much better than last year (green line). However, we are still at 92% of the median — these next couple storms should push us close to the median. Barring a disastrous April, we should top out above the previous 4 years’ max snowpack at Snowbird. Small victories…
Get out and enjoy the fresh snow while you can!
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