Thursday PM update:
Making a quick update as I may not have a forecast up until later in the morning on Friday. A few snow showers up high this evening might make for a thin later of dust tomorrow, highest amounts were up near the Idaho border. Next wave pushes in Friday evening into Saturday morning. Still looks like 3-6″ for the mountains with perhaps a bit more in the Cottonwoods if all goes according to plan.
The storm for early next week still looks good. Still think Tuesday and Wednesday are the most likely to be good. WSF
Still some fresh snow out there to be skied after our last storm dropped 6-20″ of snow on the Wasatch. A weak wave Thursday evening will bring a chance for a few mountain snow showers. Another wave Friday night into early Saturday will have a chance to put down a few inches. Stronger trough possible for early next week.
March continues to do its thing. Perhaps not in the “miracle March” fashion we were hoping for, but we are seeing a decent storm at least once per week since the beginning of the month. Similar to my day on Tuesday, I was able to get out for several hours yesterday and it was very, very good in the upper Cottonwoods. I experimented with skiing with a selfie stick for the first time. Rest assured, I felt like a real tool holding that “narcissi-stick” in my hand. But I have to admit, the video I got was actually pretty cool. Here’s a still frame I posted last night on WSF’s Instagram (@wasatchsnowforecast) and Facebook accounts:
Faceshots all day!
This afternoon and this evening we have a very subtle, weak system that will push through mainly Northern Utah. We’ll probably see some scattered showers with snow above 6,500 feet. Probably only an inch or two at best by tomorrow morning. A stronger wave will follow late Friday into early Saturday. This system has a bit more moisture and cold air, so snow levels should fall back down to valleys. Nothing major, but Saturday could have 3-6″ of fresh snow with perhaps a bit more in favored areas.
Looking like a break for Sunday and the first part of Monday before a much larger trough settles into the region by Monday night. This is our fourth consecutive week of an early week trough — so those of you who don’t have to work on Tuesday and Wednesday should be rejoicing this month. As mentioned in previous posts, this low pressure system looks like it will close off over the Great Basin. Closed lows are notoriously unorganized and difficult to forecast. There does appear to be plenty of moisture, but right now it’s a question of just where the low tracks and subsequently where it directs the best moisture. The one good thing about closed lows is they are often slow, meandering systems that can put down quite a bit of precipitation over one area. So there’s potential for Tuesday/Wednesday of next week to be good.
If you look at the QPF ensembles over the next week, you can see that after our weak storms tomorrow and Saturday, we have a much more significant upward trend early next week:
A huge spread in the ensembles means that there just isn’t a lot of confidence in one particular solution just yet, but it does appear like more snow is likely. Stay tuned over the next few days as we try to iron out the details…
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