Very warm and sunny today (Sunday). Storm will start to approach on Monday with increasing winds and clouds, but still very warm. Storm arrives Tuesday morning moving in from north to south. Temps and snow levels will drop on Tuesday with decent accumulations likely. Unsettled conditions could continue thru much of the week.
Another week, another storm to start us off. Warmth will continue thru Monday, although winds and clouds will be on the increase as our storm approaches. Right now, it looks like precip will develop in far northern Utah on Monday night and reach the central Wasatch sometime around dawn. Initially, snow levels could be quite high, in the neighborhood of 7,500-8,000 ft, but should drop dramatically during the day on Tuesday — reaching valley floors by the end of the event.
Tuesday should be storm day with periods of heavy snowfall. Wednesday will be the day after the storm with scattered snow showers possible, especially in orographically enhanced areas.
As for storm totals, NAEFS ensembles are still all over the place with outliers on both ends:
Despite the outliers, we’ve generally had a mean of around 1.5″ for several days now — so there is an element of consistency here. The 12km NAM is predictably a bit less ambitious:
Almost an inch of QPF for the Upper Cottonwoods by mid-day Wednesday. The Euro shows a bit more than the NAM but not as much as GEFS mean, coming in at about 1.1″ of liquid. Overall, I think our snow forecast from the other day is still valid. 6-12″ above 7,500 feet with 10-16″ for the Cottonwoods by Wednesday afternoon. I’d expect about half of this to fall before lifts close on Tuesday with half of the totals after that point. Timing is subject to change…
The other piece of good news is that models agree right now that the ridge in the eastern Pacific will continue to amplify. We should be far enough east of the ridge axis that storms will be able to drop down the backside. These are cool storms and not particularly moist or energetic, but we should see more chances for at least light snow on Friday/Saturday. This time of year, the sun angle can be caustic. Hopefully this continued cool weather will help preserve snow quality a bit longer than we’ve seen the past two weeks.