Rapid warm-up underway over the next couple days. This weekend will feature clouds and breezes, but little in the way of precipitation. A relatively strong system moves in Monday into Tuesday with decent accumulations possible.
Yesterday was a great little powder day in the Wasatch. Not incredibly deep, but 3-6″ that skied deeper in many spots. Fast, velvety, and no crowds to speak of. A trough to our west will trigger a strong southwesterly flow over the next couple days. That’s going to be a catalyst for a rapid warm up today and tomorrow in Utah. Temps in the 60s in the valleys and the low 50s possible on the mountains. A slight cool down this weekend as a splitting system moves to our south. A few showers possible, mostly in southern Utah, on Saturday.
Attention is squarely on an approaching system for early next week. System looks to have potential to be a fairly good one for the Wasatch with decent structure and plenty of moisture. At this time it looks like some moisture will start to spread into the area Sunday night and early Monday, but the main front will arrive later on Monday into Monday night. This system has a good, moist environment behind the front, so it’s possible showers could continue Tuesday into early Wednesday as well. Here is the NAEFS ensembles as of this morning:
You can see that there is definitely potential, with QPF ranging from 1.5″ to 4.0″ with a mean of nearly 3″. I think this is overdone, but even 2″ of QPF would mean a good storm. It should be noted that the ECMWF is not nearly as optimistic, portraying closer to an inch of liquid for the high Wasatch. The one caveat to this system is that we will be starting out with a very warm air mass, which means snow levels could be 7k feet or higher initially and will not fall until Monday night behind the front.
Total precip over the next week shows good amounts for Northern Utah, but you can see California continues to get hammered (they’ve already seen 5+ feet of snow since last week in parts of the Sierra Nevada):
We are still 4-6 days out from this storm, so I’d advise against getting excited. Right now, I’d just keep an eye on the forecast and see how it develops. At this point, it looks like Tuesday is the day for the best powder but obviously that is subject to change if models trend differently.