A week of weaks

Saturday, February 27, 2016 at 6:14 am

Sunday update:

Model forecasts have not been encouraging for this week.  Our weak storms are generally looking even weaker.  Clouds, breezes, a few mountain snow showers, not much accumulation likely.  Individual waves on Monday, Tuesday night, and Friday.

Models still looking solid for a pattern change beyond next weekend…  WSF





A very weak system will clip far Northern Utah today (Saturday).  Mostly just clouds, but cannot rule out a couple mountain snow showers.  Another weak system on Monday will bring another chance for generally light snow to Northern Utah.  A couple more weak systems possible later next week.


The first in what looks like a series of very weak systems will move through today.  This thing is pretty lame, so clouds and breezy weather will be the main impact.  Can’t rule out a few snow showers in the mountains, especially up near the Idaho border.

Next weak system will come in on Monday.  This system is stronger than today’s, but still only looks like a few inches at best.

Models have come around to a new idea since yesterday morning and that is to bring in a third weak system sometime around Tuesday night.  This solution is much more prominent in the EC than the GFS, but could mean an additional couple inches.

Finally, there appears to be a fourth weak system for about Thursday night or Friday of next week.  Obviously, details are vague this far out.  Some suggestions this wave could be the strongest of the four, but that’s not really saying all that much…

Still looks like we will undergo a gradual pattern change over the first ten days of March.  I’m optimistic that we can get some stronger storms into the area, but it may take some patience.  Until then, we at least have some weak storm energy moving through the area.  I always say that some energy is much better than no storm energy because at least we have an opportunity to be surprised by one of these storms.

Stay tuned….


P.S.  I will be doing an end of month snowpack analysis on Monday or Tuesday.

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  • Brett Davis

    “P.S. I will be doing an end of month snowpack analysis on Monday or Tuesday.”

    ^^ This is gonna make me cry.

  • Anders Kvaal

    Somethings better than nothing. Thanks for everything you do Evan, I love this blog!

  • Lex Gardner

    Ahh I was hoping for the pattern change to happen before I arrived on the 5th… Fingers still crossed for a storm b/t the 5th and the 10th.

  • jargonhunter

    Today’s CPC is pretty enthusiastic about precipitation. Wonder if they know something? 😉


    • Steve Noufer

      I do know they are just computer generated on weekends. No forecaster input. But I certainly hope so. It’s been quite a while since a substantial storm.

      • jargonhunter

        Definitely looks like a pattern change might be in order for week two of March. However, everything this week appears as if most of the energy will stay north.

  • Justin Wehner

    My memory sucks… but this has to be one of the worst Februarys on record, no?

    Snowpack analysis is going to be brutal…

    • Fred

      Umm NOPE check LAST year LOL

      • Dylan Foster

        I think everyone is trying to forget about last year

      • Justin Wehner

        I did say “one of”… but yes, unfortunately, my brain has yet to cleanse 2015. Nothing like endless mud season…