High pressure is generally in control, but we will be clipped by a system on Saturday with a few snow showers possible in far northern Utah. A stronger system likely for Monday with more widespread snowfall. Perhaps a pattern change starting to show up in the long-range.
Quiet today (Thursday) and tomorrow. Breezes pick up Friday night and clouds increase in Northern Utah as the ridge flattens a bit. This will allow a system to clip the region on Saturday. We may see a few snow showers but accumulations should stay very light.
A stronger system is now looking likely for Monday. Models have been wavering over the past couple days but it seems like they are starting to find some common ground. This system is still doing battle with the ridge, but it should charge in and at least temporarily push the ridge out of the area. It should look something like this:
This will allow snow to fall on Monday with the passage of a cold front. Right now, there’s still not a ton of consensus on just how much snow we will see. Here is a look at the NAEFS ensembles:
You can see that they are all over the place, but the mean is about half an inch of liquid — so perhaps a small to medium storm. However, if one of the higher or lower ensemble members verifies, that forecast will change. Overall, it does look like some powder skiing will be done on Monday/Tuesday of the upcoming week.
High pressure looks to re-establish itself for the first few days of March. I am noticing that both the GFS and the ECMWF ensembles are in general agreement of a pattern change occurring sometime between March 5-10. This is quite a ways out, and certainly not concrete, but it’s the most solid pattern change we’ve seen in several weeks and the fact that there’s some consensus between models makes it more viable. We’ll have to wait and see if this trend holds, but hopefully we’ll be heading back to a stormier pattern — and at least we have some occasional fresh snow between now and then to keep us entertained.