A system is clipping northern Utah today with snow showers likely in the mountains. Accumulations should generally be light, but could be enough for some soft turns today and tomorrow. A break Tuesday and Wednesday before a stronger storm moves in for late Thursday into Friday.
I feel like there has been quite a bit of negativity lately, which is mostly my fault. First and foremost I’m a powder skier, so when I don’t see much powder in the forecast, I have a tendency for a negative tone to prevail in these forecasts. The fact of the matter is we’ve had numerous powder days so far this year and ski conditions have actually been great over the past 9 days, despite no new snow. We’ve also got a couple storms in the forecast. No need for the doom and gloom.
The first system is pushing in right now. Snow started in the Northern Wasatch and has just now spread to the central Wasatch. Snowing healthily at Alta at 8am:
This snow should continue thru the day and into tonight off and on. Highest accumulations will likely be in the northern Wasatch and also LCC in a northwest flow. I think 2-5″ is possible, but we can’t rule out more than that, especially in LCC if that orographic machine turns on like it did earlier this month. Today could get better throughout the day. Don’t be surprised if tomorrow is a “sleeper” powder day.
We’ll clear out for late Monday thru Wednesday. We should also press the “reset” button on the inversion. So the worst conditions should now be behind us.
The next storm comes in on Thursday the 18th. We’ve been talking about this storm for a long time. It looks like it’s fairly strong, but quick moving, which will limit amounts somewhat. Snow should be heaviest late on Thursday into Thursday night. This could set up for a good Friday morning powder day. Here is the QPF for the next week as shown by GFS/GEM ensembles:
You can see that ensembles are all over the place with regard to how much precip can be expected for the end of the week. Anywhere from practically nothing to 2″+ of liquid. I think right now somewhere in the .5-1.0″ is the most likely… which translates to a moderate storm.
In general, it looks like high pressure is more likely for the last 7-8 days of the month. That doesn’t mean we can’t get storms, it just means that at this point high pressure seems a bit more likely. CFS and ECMWF weeklies still show a more active and El Nino-influenced pattern developing, but at this point it’s hard to say when that will actually occur. If I were you, I’d hope for the best in the long-range, but be sure to make the most of these storms this week, just in case the long-range remains dry for longer than expected.