Saturday AM update:
Not much new info. Still expect Northern Utah snow showers on Sunday and Monday with light accumulations. Storm on Thursday into Friday still possible but models disagree on how much strength it will maintain as it battles high pressure. Inversion should mix out for most of us by Monday…. Fresh air! Full update Sunday AM…
Strong high pressure ridge will flatten this weekend, allowing for a weak system to clip far northern Utah. Snow showers are possible although accumulations will likely be light. High pressure returns next week before another trough brings more chances for mountain snow late in the week.
Another mostly sunny and warm day today (Friday) in the mountains while the valleys continue to suffer through cold inversions and thick pollution. A couple weak systems will start to impact the region starting Saturday as the ridge flattens just enough for storms to clip Northern Utah. The strongest wave will be on Sunday. Mountain snowfall is likely, although it should remain on the light side with accumulations of a few inches or less. Still, some storm energy is better than no storm energy, and there’s always the outside chance we’ll get surprised….
The other benefit of the weak storms this weekend is that they might just be enough to at least partially clear out the inversions. By Monday morning things could be significantly clearer along the Wasatch Front, which will be a relief for many of us. Snow showers could linger in the high elevations on Monday but high pressure should be back in control by Tuesday with warming temps.
A trough will drop into the area out of the northwest later next week. This trough is doing battle with high pressure, and therefore will likely weaken significantly as it moves east. It is also possible it could split over the Great Basin. Still… Utah mountains should see at least some snowfall on Thursday and/or Friday of next week. We will fine tune the details as we get closer.
After this trough, all models point to high pressure quickly re-establishing itself. Right now the overall pattern is much more favorable for ridging than it is for troughing. We need a major pattern change and at this point I don’t see that happening until the last few days of the month at the very earliest. Until then, storms will be less frequent and be susceptible to substantial weakening as they approach the region. Be patient… My gut tells me March will be significantly more active and the long range models agree for the most part.