Tuesday, February 9, 2016 at 6:40 am

Quick Update:

Not much new to talk about.  The weak energy passing to our north this weekend is looking a bit better, which means that we could indeed see a few snow showers in the high elevations.  Otherwise, mountain warmth and valley haze will continue thru the week.  Better storm still possible around the 18th/19th…




High pressure continues to dominate the region with warm temps in the high elevations and sunny skies.  Valley haze is on the increase with cooler temps trapped in the basins.  Perhaps a chance for a storm in the long-range.


Sunny and warm.  That’s the forecast for the next few days as high pressure continues its firm grip on the western portion of the country.  Inversions are in place and because of it, air quality in the valleys is deteriorating.  Even if you’re a powder hound, now is a good time to be in the mountains simply for some fresh air and vitamin D.

The ridge will weaken this weekend as a couple weak systems push through.  These systems look to mainly stay to our north and the main effects will likely be a cool down, some breezes and some clouds.  Can’t rule out a snow showers or two, but certainly nothing of note.  The ridge will re-strengthen early next week.

At this point, models continue to agree that the ridge axis will shift west over the eastern Pacific middle of next week.  This will allow an interesting scenario to develop.  A cold trough will drop down out of the northwest.  At the same time, it looks like sub-tropical moisture could be pulled up out of the southwest.  These two features converge over the intermountain west.  This could bring us a chance for a storm February 18-19.  This is still 9-10 days away, so details are vague and confidence is still low — but it’s something to watch.

In general, it looks like we will slowly transition back to a more typical El Nino pattern by the end of the month.  That means the southern storm track will once again be favored.  Current March outlook shows the following:


Above normal precip for Cali and the desert Southwest.  Utah is more on the fence.  If this image looks familiar, it’s because cause it is.  This is essentially the same as the seasonal forecasts at the start of the season — heavily El Nino influenced.

Plenty of action left before this season is over.


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  • Jim

    The euro has been very consistent with the first brush by trough and second stronger trough. The GFS has been slowly coming around to a similar solution. Even the GEM is on board for next week for what it’s worth. If that sub tropical moisture does in fact meet up with that trough coming down around the 18th it could be very interesting indeed.

    • Craig Letton

      I’m praying that your right!

  • Chad Niel

    I’m to the point of being more concerned about when the valley will clear out then when the next powder day is ;/

  • Steve Noufer

    The 18Z run of the GFS seems to take precip a bit further south on 18th. Hopefully, not a trend.

    • Florida Sam

      BUT(!) all the runs are seemingly busting the High pressure and opening the door.
      yes, maybe some snow on the 18th….. however, the 19+ days while 10 days + out aka fantasy land, seems a bit more interesting.
      Can’t wait till this weekend, because that means next weekend isn’t 10 days plus…..

  • Jim

    I guess we are officially in long range model watch (brings back bad memories from last winter)…I’m liking the GFS more than the Euro today, Yesterday I liked the Euro more. CPC precip prob forecast is improving but with low confidence. CFSv2 going more average from below average precip. next two weeks. In short, the models are still all over the place beyond this weekend with potential troughs and ridging. Keep your fingers crossed that the 18th will deliver something nice at least.