“And on the seventh day, the weatherman rested and watched football…”
High pressure is in control with dry weather and extensive warming likely for mountains throughout the Western U.S. over the next few days. At least a week before our next chance for a storm.
Really not all that much to talk about today. The ridge we’ve talked about for awhile is now firmly established and will continue to strengthen over the next few days. Warming temps up high with inversions likely to develop in the valleys. I know we all want more powder, but I’d expect the skiing/riding to still be fun with spring-like conditions…. just a different kind of fun. Work on your goggle tan, explore some areas you’ve never skied before, have a tailgate bbq.
As for when snow will return to the region, it won’t be for at least a week. The ridge gradually weakens and pushes east later next week. This may allow for some energy to push in from the Pacific. The GFS has a weak storm around Valentine’s Day. The Euro is too weak with this system to really bring us anything other than clouds. After mid-month, ensembles are all over the place. There’s definitely a pattern shift, but the disagreement is whether this opens a storm door, or whether another ridge just builds in place of the old one.
In general, long range models keep us drier than normal through the third week of the month. Toward the end of the month, there is a trend for active weather to return. Like I said yesterday, until something concrete comes along, all we can do is wait and hope and enjoy what we have.