Our first weak system is bringing snow showers to the mountains of Northern Utah this morning. A break this afternoon before the next system moves in tonight into Friday with additional snow. A break Friday night and Saturday before a third system moves in Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additional systems likely next week.
Storm system #1 is moving through right now. Up north, Snowbasin and Powder Mountain have each seen a couple inches so far. It just started snowing in the last hour or so in the Cottonwoods but it coming down at a good clip so far:
Snow showers should continue thru the morning. Generally I would expect snow amounts today to be in the 2-4″ range with perhaps 6″ in the Cottonwoods. Always a chance for persistent banding to deliver more than expected. As mentioned yesterday, today is mostly “dust on crust”.
A break this afternoon and evening will be short lived as storm #2 enters the region. This one has been showing signs of diving into Southern Utah and giving that area the best snow. Good news for Brian Head. Bad news for the other 14 Utah ski resorts in the central/northern part of the state. Still, even with a dive to the south, we’d still all get additional snow with amounts generally in the 4-8″ range for most mountains with 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods. Only a weak to moderate system. So these two storms combined should bring anywhere from 6 to 18″ of snow to the mountains of Utah with orographically favored areas (Cottonwoods) likely to receive the most.
Another break Friday night and Saturday before a third system moves in Saturday night into Sunday morning. Another generally weak system but it should add another at least 3-6″ of snow, perhaps a bit more for some areas. It will be a tad warmer so the snow densities on the mountain could be slightly higher for you skiing on Sunday.
Overall, you can see these three systems quite clearly on the current (06z) NAM output:
Because these are weak systems, the total precip from all three is about equal to one good storm. Still, we have three opportunities for storms to overperform, and storms spread out over a long duration like this makes for great ski conditions with consistent refreshes!
Next week, we have a possibility for another system Tuesday/Wednesday. This was looking decently strong in the GFS with a potential for a pineapple connection, but models are backing off on this idea a bit. Instead, bringing in yet another fairly weak system. There is another potential system for next weekend (January 22-24) but confidence is very low right now.
To sum up, we have an active pattern with a parade of storms, but at this point, the storms are generally weak. Still better than the splitting pattern that models were forecasting at this time last week!