Dry weather will come to an end late Wednesday night into Thursday as the first in a series of storms enters the region. Utah mountains will see frequent snowfall thru the weekend and likely into next week as an active pattern takes shape.
Forecast models have continued their trend of bringing an active pattern back to the region starting Thursday. I get a lot of comments to the effect of “models always seem to back off on storms.” People never seem to remember the times when the forecast looks bleak, then suddenly there are storms in the forecast. Well, this is one of those times. A few days ago, it looks like most energy would be splitting long before reaching us, now we have several storms lined up on our doorstep. So models do trend in both directions, soul-crushing disappointment just seems to be more memorable. This is also why I always say that beyond 5 days, anything is possible.
This is a relatively weak storm that will “break down the door”. Not a ton of moisture or dynamics with it. Snow should begin after midnight on Thursday morning and continue off and on into Thursday afternoon. Amounts will generally be light in the 3-6″ range with 5-10″ possible for the Cottonwoods by Thursday evening.
Right on the heels of the first system is a second one. This will push in Thursday night into Friday morning. GFS and EC both agree that this will be stronger than the first system. I would classify this as a moderate system. Generally, I define “moderate” as 6-18″ of snow in the Wasatch. I will look at exact numbers tomorrow. Friday should be a snowy day with great skiing again.
A bit less confidence in this system but both the EC and GFS agree that the storm will push in snowfall later in the day on Saturday and continue Saturday night into Sunday. If trends hold, another moderate snowfall looks likely for Northern Utah mountains.
Very little confidence in this one at all. Not even sure of it occurring. However, the GFS shows the biggest storm in the series for about Tuesday of next week. The EC shows this system as well, but it is a colder, much weaker system without any of the sub-tropical moisture shown in the GFS. We will just have to wait and see about this storm, but my guess right now is that we will, at the very least, remain active next week.
To wrap up, we’ve got at least 3-4 storms on the way in the next 10 days. None of them look huge at this point, but a small storm followed by two moderate storms is going to ski very nicely. I expect us to have a series of consecutive powder days over the MLK weekend.
P.S. Apparently my database server has been having capacity issues thanks to too many refreshes of the site. Working to increase capacity. Sorry if you’ve had trouble accessing the site today. I had images in this discussion originally but had to remove them due to this issue.