Thursday PM update:
I’m liking what I’m seeing so far on radar in regards to a band of snow setting up over the region this evening into tonight. Spoke this morning that localized areas could get much higher totals if these wrap around bands were placed correctly. Right now it looks like there’s a chance for just such a band to park itself over PC/Cottonwoods…. Keep an eye on radar and webcams for potential sleeper powder day tomorrow…?
Another refresh of snow with 3-6+ inches overnight at most Utah resorts. Sundance reporting a foot of new snow! More snow showers tonight into Friday before a gradual clearing and drying trend as we head toward next week.
A moist southerly flow last night brought another wave of snow through the region during the evening and overnight hours. Sundance was the big winner. They often do well in southerly flows and this was no exception — reporting a foot of snow! Snowbasin, another favored mountain in a south/southwesterly flow received 7″ of fresh. Check out the snowbasin snow stake overnight to verify:
Cottonwoods and Park City resorts are reporting between 3 and 5 inches of new snow. Snowbird reporting 5″:
For the most part, today is a break with mostly cloudy skies. Right now, HRRR guidance has the next wave spinning up into the region tonight, bringing moisture with it. We could see wrap around snowfall bands develop this evening in an easterly flow. There’s a chance these bands could set up over one localized area and bring higher snowfall totals, but in general I think another refresh of 1-3″ is likely. We’ll just have to watch and see if and where snowfall bands set up tonight. Snow showers continue into Friday morning before diminishing.
A system will push into California this weekend and move east but should split and weaken as it does so. By the time it reaches Utah, I’m guessing it will mostly be clouds. However, can’t rule out a few snow showers later in the weekend.
Next week looks mostly dry at this time. As we’ve talked about the last few days, the trough is going to be parked off the west coast next week, which means ejecting energy will encounter high pressure and weaken considerably before ever making it to Utah. We could get very light scraps from time to time, but anything significant looks to hold off. You can see this trough very well on this CFS qpf output map for next week (Jan 12-17):
Lots of storm energy off the Pacific coast. Literally, the exact opposite of the ridge from last year that blocked all storms. This time, however, the storms are there, but having a difficult time progressing inland. I suppose the good news is that the CFS has the trough eventually pushing east and opening up a bit later in the month. As of right now, that isn’t really being picked up in 10-day operational runs of models quite yet. So we are left waiting and hoping.
One thing’s for sure, El Nino has the Pacific absolutely jacked right now. If only we could get this pattern to evolve we could be in for a very snowy period during late January and February. But of course, right now that’s a big “if”….