An active pattern will bring heavy rain and snow to Southern California and the desert southwest this week. Southern Utah will likely see decent snow accumulations in the mountains. Northern Utah will see lighter accumulations with the best energy likely on Wednesday. Active pattern could continue next weekend into the following week.
We are absolutely on the cusp of entering our first true El Nino pattern of the winter. As you’d expect, Southern California is going to take the brunt of the action with the southern jet getting very active. A parade of storms is going to push into California and Arizona this week, bringing copious rain and mountain snowfall. As we know, this is a drought-stricken area and this series of storms is desperately needed.
For Utah, the southern part of the state is going to see the most precipitation. Brian Head will likely see snowfall starting Monday with an initial weak system. Then a stronger system Tuesday night and Wednesday will bring more significant accumulations. Another storm Thursday night into Friday could bring additional accumulations. Overall, a very snowy week for Southern Utah.
For the north, we are much more on the periphery of the action. The first weak system will perhaps throw up some scattered mountain snow showers late Monday into Monday night. The stronger system on Wednesday will bring more widespread snowfall but amounts should be light to moderate. The subsequent system may stay south again later this week. Overall, active but not particularly snowy for northern Utah.
Things could become more interesting for all of us starting next weekend. The GFS has been fairly consistent with bringing in a system farther north. The Euro is weaker with this system but has a similar idea. There are some indications that the pattern could continue to stay active through mid-month.