Monday 6pm Update:
We are just getting started with the fun this evening! Snowfall has filled in nicely this afternoon ahead of the main jet. 3-6″ so far since this morning at most locations. Right now we are in a bit of a “break” as the advected precip wanes as the jet starts to move into the area. I’d expect precip to increase again later this evening with heavy snow likely for the mountains overnight. Here is the HRRR forecast until 7am tomorrow:
Heavy valley rain and mountain snow looks likely to continue. I still think there will be a lull in precip tomorrow afternoon, but Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we look good to see additional snow. This time of the lighter, fluffier variety.
Don’t forget about the winds tonight, they will be howling. I expect a good chance for some road closures tomorrow and it may be a challenge to get the mountains open. Please be patient and safe.
A very moist system will push into the region today with wet snowfall likely continuing heavily into Tuesday. A break late in the day Tuesday before a cold front lowers snow levels and brings lighter, fluffier snow for Wednesday. Another, weaker storm for Christmas Eve into Christmas Day.
A “hose” of moisture is approaching the region this morning. You can see all the moisture associated with this system on this visible satellite image:
Notice the hose of moisture pushing toward the coast right now in a strong northwest flow. That will nose over our region tonight into tomorrow. Strong winds. Heavy mountain snow. Valley rain. Expect precipitation and winds to increase during the day today (Monday).
Our totals since early yesterday morning have already been somewhat decent. Just for the sake of ease, I’m keeping track of everything between now and Wednesday evening as one storm, as each wave is associated with the same storm complex. Here is where we stand so far (inches):
Brighton is leading the way, followed by Solitude and Sundace. I was in LCC and they got about 5-6″ during the day yesterday plus several more inches over night — so 10″ seems about right.
Today thru tomorrow morning should be another 1-2 feet for most locations with more possible in the Cottonwoods. This will be dense, heavy snow with high winds. Snow levels will be high. Please remember that these totals are for mid-mountain. Good chance that the base of many resorts will see significantly less as they will be close to the rain/snow line.
There should be a break in the action Tuesday afternoon and evening after the jet sags south and weakens. You can see the break in the forecasted NAM snowfall graph:
During the middle of the night into Wednesday morning, a trailing cold front will fire up snow once again. This time it should be much lighter, fluffier snow with colder temps. I’d expect another 4-8″ with 6-12″ possible in the Cottonwoods on top of what already fell.
That should bring our storm totals easily into the 1-3 feet range with a good possibility for 4 feet in a few locations if everything comes together for us.
Another storm is timing for Christmas Eve into early Christmas Day, but models generally still favor a southern track for this storm that will affect S. Utah more than the Wasatch. I still expect at least some light additional accumulations for Christmas morning skiing.
A break this weekend, then perhaps another trough early next week.
It will be a crazy upcoming 48 hours of storm. I will need help to keep track of everything. Please post reports in comments. Tag photos on social media with #wasatchsnowforecast when possible. Thanks!