A bit of fresh snow from last night’s fast-moving cold front. A few snow showers possible at times thru the weekend, but accumulating snow will return by early Monday morning and likely continue into Tuesday.
Everything pretty much went to plan with last night’s cold front. The forecast yesterday morning was 3-6″ with 5-9″ for the Cottonwoods. Most resorts are in the range of 2-7″ so far. Seems like the highest totals were in BCC (6-7″). Snowbird and Alta both with 5″ reported. Alta-Collins sensor shows 5-6″ of snow fell before settling down to 4″. As expected, the fast movement and the lack of instability and flow behind the front were limiting factors. It’s a good amount of fresh snow to get your legs reacquainted with pow.
Generally, we’ll be in a break thru the weekend. The next storm has been trending a bit slower. This is significant because it would mean less snow Sunday night. Right now it looks like snow would develop sometime in the middle of the night on Sunday night and continue through Monday morning. This would put down a few inches for first chair with several more inches of snow accumulating throughout the day on Monday. The big difference with this storm is that it will hopefully succeed where last night’s failed. It will have a good period of post-frontal, moist, unstable northwest flow. Very cold air will promote high snow ratios and even give us a chance for some lake effect action. Because of this, snow will be likely to continue thru Monday night and into Tuesday and possibly beyond.
As for totals, it looks like the front itself on Monday will put down 4-8″ for most of the Wasatch with perhaps 6-12″ for the Cottonwoods. Behind the front, orographics due to this northwest flow will be a wildcard. Conceivably, I could see us getting anywhere from a few additional inches to a foot or more, especially in favored areas like the Cottonwoods. Here is a map of totals from the GFS:
You can see that the Cottonwood Canyons is a bullseye for some decent accumulations.
As mentioned yesterday, due to our luck this season. I think giving it another 24 hours is wise before we start getting too invested in this storm. At this point it does look like Monday could be a good storm riding day and Tuesday could be a deep powder day for the Cottonwoods if the northwest flow delivers. Keep your fingers crossed!