Windy today ahead of a cold front that will move in from north to south this evening. A short period of heavy snowfall is likely across the Wasatch this evening before shifting to southern Utah overnight. Modest powder turns on Friday with a few lingering snow showers. A bigger storm possible for late Sunday thru Tuesday.
A weak wave moved thru last night. More clouds than anything, although there were a few snowflakes seen on webcams, but not enough for any sort of accumulation.
Very windy today as a cold front approaches. You can see the storm pushing in on this water vapor loop:
This storm system is bringing big snowfall totals to the Cascades and Sierra Nevada. The core of the storm is less progressive than we’d like, which means that it will sag south more than progress east through the Great Basin. This means we will be limited to mostly just the cold front and will not benefit from cold core instability behind the front.
This cold front is going to move through the area very quickly this evening, which will be a severe limiting factor in our snowfall potential. Here is the HRRR model loop showing precip pushing in with the front this evening:
According to this, the front will move into the SLC area around 8-9pm tonight.
Like I mentioned earlier, the short duration and lack of instability and flow behind the front will be limiting factors in accumulations. I think most mountains will be in the 3-6″ range with favored locations like the Cottonwoods perhaps in the 5-9″ range. I’ve seen these type of systems go both ways, sometimes the front moves through very quickly and you get 3″ of snow really fast and then nothing… Sometimes the front ends up stalling just a bit more than forecasted and you get 4-5 hours of heavy snow… We’ll have to just wait and see what things look like tomorrow morning. At the very least, everybody should have at least some soft powder added to their turns.
The big question today… Is this just an appetizer for a much larger storm Sunday night into Monday? Right now, virtually all models are showing that as a decent system. With both Monday and Tuesday as potential powder days. How decent of a system? Well, right now, models generally project .75″-1.5″ of liquid, which with the cold temperatures that are expected, would yield 1-2 feet of snow.
But this raises another big question… Can we trust the models right now? We’ve seen storms look good 4-5 days out, then tank as we moved within 3 days all season. I’m in a bit of a quandary — I don’t want to get your hopes up. But at the same time, as a forecaste,r I have to let you know that a good storm is definitely possible. Let’s just keep a calm, rational eye on this storm and hope for the best. Don’t get your hopes up until Saturday when we are close enough for much higher confidence.
This storm would also have the potential to leave us in a very cold northwest flow for much of the middle of next week. This is the type of pattern that can kick off lake effect and orographic showers without much help. Additional accumulations possible…
Late next week the models completely diverge on whether or not we’ll have another storm…
No matter how you slice it, we have a cold and active pattern coming up that will go a long way in getting the mountains fully skiable for the holidays.